Seven draft day trends
08/29/2007
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I love this time of year. August starts with a few mock drafts to get the fantasy juices flowing then, in the middle of the month, I start drafting for real. Over the past couple of weeks I’ve participated in several 12-team point-per-reception (PPR) drafts, and while every draft is different, I’ve noticed that a few trends have emerged.
Note: Average Draft Position (ADP) data is from Antsports' 12-team mock drafts.
1. Things are iffy after the top 11 RBs.
The second round RBs seem to be thinning out. After the top 11 guys – Ladainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, Frank Gore, Joseph Addai, Shaun Alexander, Reggie Bush, Brian Westbrook, Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson and Laurence Maroney – the draft stock of several of the second round backs seems to be slipping. There has been talk of Ronnie Brown (right) losing his job (which seems to be pure motivation). Travis Henry and Clinton Portis are both dealing with knee problems, which has raised concerns about their injury history. There are those that are afraid to take Maurice Jones-Drew because he doesn’t even start for his own team, while Thomas Jones is dealing with a calf strain that has kept him out of action. Fantasy owners seem to be content to take Peyton Manning or a top tier WR in the second round and target Edgerrin James, Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs in the third.
2. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is finally getting his due.
I’ve been targeting Housh in the third round and have yet to land him. Despite an ADP of 3.09, he seems to be going much earlier. He’s especially valuable in PPR leagues, where he actually cracked the top 10 in 2006. Part of this is due to his remarkable consistency – he has the second lowest standard deviation in points per game of any of the top 10 WRs – while the softening in the relative value of Larry Fitzgerald (new offensive system) and Roy Williams (the arrival of Calvin Johnson) has caused more than a few owners to jump on Housh just after the 2/3 turn. I can’t say I blame them.
3. If you want Vernon Davis, be prepared to spend.
I like Davis as much as the next guy, but I can’t believe that he’s going ahead of more proven players like Jeremy Shockey, Kellen Winslow and Chris Cooley. I don’t argue that he can’t have a better year than those players, but at this point they are proven commodities at the TE position while Davis’ résumé consists of a few nice games late last season. The news out of camp has been terrific and everyone seems to think that he’s going to have a breakout year, which is why he has almost overtaken Todd Heap as the third TE off the board. In other words, the hype machine is in full effect. Are fantasy owners on the mark here or are they setting themselves up for disappointment? Only time will tell.
4. LaMont Jordan isn’t getting much love.
Understandably, fantasy owners are leery of Jordan, who was one of the (if not the) biggest draft busts of 2006. But a closer look reveals quite a few reasons to be optimistic. His main competition, Dominic Rhodes, will miss the first four games for driving recklessly this summer. In two preseason games, Jordan has looked solid, rushing 24 times for 108 yards and two scores along with two catches for 57 yards. He is just 28 and has low miles for a back of that age. Moreover, Art Shell and his pathetic offense are out and Lane Kiffin is in. Jordan is an injury risk – his 2006 season ended with an MCL tear and he’s been dealing with a sore back in camp, but those injuries appear to be behind him. Remember, Jordan was the #8 fantasy back in 2005, gaining 1588 total yards from scrimmage and scoring 11 times. He isn’t a sure thing, but he has an ADP of 8.03, so in the sixth or seventh round, he’s a nice prospect as a RB3. Plus, you can get Rhodes much later as insurance.
5. The QB crop is deep.
There are at least 12 QBs that I’d be comfortable drafting as my starter and another five that could be used in a strong committee system. On average, just eight QBs are going in the first six rounds, while another seven are going in rounds 7-9. In a 12-team league, once 11 QBs are off the board, the pressure to draft your starter is reduced so you can wait a while before grabbing Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers or Eli Manning. That goes double for 10-team leagues. Load up at other positions and then draft a couple of good QBs in rounds 9-12 and call it a day.
6. For fantasy purposes, the Carolina, Dallas, Detroit, Green Bay, Tennessee and Atlanta running games are a mess, and people are staying away.
You could probably add Oakland and Cleveland to this list, but I actually think LaMont Jordan and Jamal Lewis are good RB3 prospects. The rest of the teams on this list are looking like RBBC to various degrees, and several – Carolina, Dallas and Atlanta – have embraced the RBBC philosophy. Despite this, the Falcons’ Jerious Norwood (5.06) appears to be the most prepared to be a feature back, but Warrick Dunn (9.09) has returned from injury and is consistently underrated on draft day. DeAngelo Williams, Marion Barber (right) and Tatum Bell all have ADPs in the fifth, but none have locked up a starting gig yet. I do think someone will emerge in Detroit and Tennessee, but the rest look like season-long RBBCs, which is bad news for fantasy owners.
7. Upside wideouts in the late rounds? Don’t count on it.
Usually, there are a number of wide receivers with ADPs in the double digits who are good upside picks later in the draft. This year, that group looks to be quite small. I like Isaac Bruce (10.08), Brandon Marshall (12.08), Ronald Curry (13.04), James Jones (14.10) and Jacoby Jones (N/A). (Bruce doesn’t have much upside, but if you can get a top 25 WR in the ninth or tenth round, you’re doing pretty well. With Torry Holt struggling with a knee injury, Bruce might be leaned on even more.)
Send questions and comments to jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com.