How to win your fantasy football league
08/10/2007
Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
I’ve been playing fantasy football for 15 years now, and while I certainly don’t win every league every year, my teams are usually at or near the top of the standings by the end of the season. I don’t know what it takes to qualify as an “expert,” as many fantasy football writers on the internet claim to be, but I am knowledgeable about the game and would like to pass on some basics as well as some advanced concepts to the faithful BE readers who could use a few tips to help make their fantasy teams more competitive.
PRIOR TO DRAFT DAY
Know your scoring system– Fantasy football scoring isn’t standard. Different leagues reward players for different accomplishments and this makes it difficult for the experts to provide preseason player rankings. For example, some leagues reward players with one point per reception (PPR). Obviously, if you have a running back who catches a lot of passes (like Brian Westbrook or Reggie Bush), his value will be enhanced in this type of league as compared to a league that does not give one point per reception. This type of scoring system also makes WRs more valuable in comparison to the other positions. For these reasons, it is not wise to use generic magazine rankings on draft day. They are often out of date and may not apply to your league’s scoring system.
Know your roster requirements – Some leagues require two starting RBs while others have one starting RB and one flex (RB/WR/TE) position. If your league requires you to start two RBs each week, it makes the RB position all the more important. If you have a flex spot instead of a second RB, it makes WRs more draftable.
Find out your draft position – Most leagues utilize a snake draft (1-12 in odd rounds and 12-1 in even rounds) so if you are in a redraft league – a league where all players are eligible for draft – knowing your draft position can help you prepare. (Check out my Charm the Snake article for more on snake-draft strategies.) Antsports.com offers an average draft summary that lets you see the average draft position (ADP) of players selected in recent mock drafts held at the site. This will give you an idea of what players might be available at a certain draft position. Here’s an example:
| # | Name | Pos | Team | ADP | High | Low | Std Dev | Drafts |
| 1. | LaDainian Tomlinson | RB | SDC | 1.01.03 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 0.16 | 37 |
| 2. | Steven Jackson | RB | STL | 1.02.17 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 0.45 | 36 |
| 3. | Larry Johnson | RB | KCC | 1.03.76 | 1.02 | 1.06 | 0.93 | 37 |
| 4. | Frank Gore | RB | SFO | 1.04.11 | 1.01 | 1.07 | 1.07 | 37 |
| 5. | Joseph Addai | RB | IND | 1.04.78 | 1.02 | 1.07 | 1.44 | 36 |
| 6. | Shaun Alexander | RB | SEA | 1.06.60 | 1.03 | 1.10 | 1.85 | 35 |
| 7. | Brian Westbrook | RB | PHI | 1.06.91 | 1.04 | 1.11 | 1.38 | 35 |
| 8. | Reggie Bush | RB | NOS | 1.08.20 | 1.06 | 1.12 | 1.43 | 35 |
| 9. | Willie Parker | RB | PIT | 1.08.97 | 1.06 | 1.11 | 1.42 | 35 |
| 10. | Rudi Johnson | RB | CIN | 1.11.03 | 1.08 | 2.04 | 1.76 | 35 |
| 11. | Laurence Maroney | RB | NEP | 1.11.19 | 1.06 | 2.03 | 2.45 | 36 |
| 12. | Travis Henry | RB | DEN | 1.12.56 | 1.10 | 2.07 | 2.14 | 36 |
| 13. | Peyton Manning | QB | IND | 2.02.11 | 1.03 | 3.04 | 5.05 | 35 |
| 14. | Willis McGahee | RB | BAL | 2.02.77 | 1.09 | 2.07 | 2.38 | 35 |
| 15. | Steve Smith | WR | CAR | 2.03.54 | 1.10 | 2.10 | 3.17 | 35 |
| 16. | Chad Johnson | WR | CIN | 2.03.83 | 1.09 | 2.10 | 3.07 | 36 |
| 17. | Ronnie Brown | RB | MIA | 2.04.62 | 1.09 | 2.10 | 2.37 | 34 |
| 18. | Maurice Jones-Drew | RB | JAC | 2.06.92 | 2.01 | 3.05 | 3.83 | 36 |
| 19. | Edgerrin James | RB | ARI | 2.07.53 | 1.12 | 3.06 | 4.10 | 36 |
| 20. | Marvin Harrison | WR | IND | 2.08.22 | 2.01 | 3.02 | 3.36 | 36 |
| 21. | Torry Holt | WR | STL | 2.08.62 | 2.01 | 3.05 | 3.07 | 34 |
| 22. | Terrell Owens | WR | DAL | 2.09 | 1.11 | 3.07 | 4.09 | 35 |
| 23. | Clinton Portis | RB | WAS | 2.10.44 | 2.01 | 3.05 | 4.27 | 34 |
| 24. | Reggie Wayne | WR | IND | 2.12.00 | 2.07 | 3.06 | 2.48 | 36 |
This represents the ADP for the first two rounds of a 12-team league as a snapshot in late July. Let’s use Larry Johnson as an example. His ADP is 1.03, which means that on average he is being selected as the third pick in the first round. The highest he was picked was 1.02 while the lowest was 1.06. His standard deviation (0.93) means that he is generally picked close to his ADP. Players with higher standard deviations (i.e. Peyton Manning ~ 5.05) have shown more variance in their pick position. The final column indicates the number of drafts in which the player was selected during the ADP time period, which is customizable.
So if you are picking #6, you will have the 6th and 18th selections in the first two rounds. Looking at the first pick, you will probably be choosing among the following group: Frank Gore, Joseph Addai (right), Shaun Alexander, Brian Westbrook and Reggie Bush. You can also add Willie Parker and/or Laurence Maroney to this list if you feel that they’re worthy. Your job is to rank these players so when your pick is up, you don’t have to put much effort into making a choice. This year, there are no WRs or QBs with ADPs in the first round, so just about everyone will be taking a RB with their first pick.
With the 18th selection (2.08), you’re likely looking at choosing amongst the players listed 18-24 with a slim to decent shot at the guys ranked 12-18. There are quite a few WRs and one QB with ADPs in the second round, so if you decide to take a non-RB, be sure to have a plan in place to fill your #2 RB position later on (if your league requires it). With the average draft tool, you can effectively plan your draft. Drafts are very fluid, and the less experienced the other owners are, the more variance you’ll see, but with a solid plan you should be in good shape.
Rank players by position – In addition to providing lots of great subscriber information, Footballguys.com offers a Value Based Drafting program, which uses MS Excel to rank players based on their statistical projections (which you can modify) and your scoring system and roster requirements. They update the projections regularly up until the start of the season. You can use this tool as a blueprint for your draft – you’ll be calm and collected while your opponents will be scrambling to make picks when things don’t go their way.
Be a good person –Fantasy football is at least 30% luck. There’s no concrete proof that karma exists, but maybe if you’re a nice person in your everyday life, you’ll get that extra bounce or two that will put your fantasy team over the top.
THE NIGHT BEFORE THE DRAFT
Injury updates – Peruse Rotoworld, Rotowire and the other sports site to be sure you didn’t miss any major injuries during preseason. You don’t want to be the dolt who drafts a player that is already gone for the season.
Get a good night’s rest – Drafting against your peers is like taking an exam. You’ll want to get 7-8 hours of sleep so you’re well rested for the draft.
DRAFT DAY
Don’t drink – If there is alcohol around, don’t partake, at least until the middle rounds. Let everyone else make emotional, hazy decisions while you sip on a Coke or a non-alcoholic brew.
Trust your gut – At any point in the draft, after you’ve narrowed your pick to a couple of players, go with the guy you think will have the better year. It’s important that you feel good about your team when the draft is over.
DRAFT DAY – FIRST SEVERAL ROUNDS
Draft RBs early – There is a reason that almost three-quarters of the players on the included ADP list are RBs. As a general rule, if you have the best backfield, you have a good chance of winning your league. This makes the RB position the most important on your roster. No other position falls off more quickly on draft day, so wise owners usually select two RBs in their first three picks. Many leagues are moving to a flex (RB/WR/TE) position instead of a RB2, which makes it less crucial to draft a second RB right away. Still, in non-PPR leagues, good RBs are still more valuable than stud WRs in that flex slot.
Draft WRs next – Once your starting RBs are set, it’s time to focus on the available WRs. The aforementioned VBD rankings are a good way to go early on, but you might be faced with some tough decisions in rounds 4-6. When in doubt, go with proven commodities over potential, unless the players with potential are stepping into #1 roles on their respective teams. A good formula for WRs in rounds 5-10 are second- and third-year guys who are #1 or #2 options on their team – this is the perfect situation for a breakout year.
Draft QBs by value – Currently, there are only five QBs going in the first four rounds (Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Drew Brees [right] and Marc Bulger). Don’t jump on any of these guys unless you can get them a round later than their ADP, or unless your VBD tells you to. There are 17 quarterbacks that I’d be comfortable starting under the right circumstances, so there’s no reason to spend an early pick on a QB unless there is obvious value available.
Draft a TE when you can – If your league requires a starting TE, I am an advocate of trying to grab a great one (Antonio Gates) early on. It is nice to have a weapon at the normally dead TE position. However, over the last few years, teams are using their TEs in the passing game more and more. Unless you can get Gates in the third round, I’d wait to grab a TE until value is apparent.
DRAFT DAY – MID TO LATE ROUNDS
Wait on Kickers & Defenses– Don’t be a lemming and start taking kickers and defenses when the others do (and definitely don’t be the first). Instead, load up on RBs and WRs with breakout potential and wait until the final rounds to take your kicker and defense. There is very little consistency year to year with these positions and it is difficult to accurately predict performance, so they are not worth a high draft pick. Generally, if you take the 10th to 12th kicker or defense, you’ve got a good shot at finishing in the top 8 or better at that position. If your pick is a clunker, there are always kickers and defenses that are left on the free agent pool that end up in the top 10 at the end of the season. Just make sure you get one of them.
Handcuff your studs– Depending on your league’s roster size, use late round picks on the backups for your RBs. For a guy like Clinton Portis, who has struggled with injuries in recent years, you’ll need to spend a middle round pick on his backup, Ladell Betts. If your guy does go down, it’s nice to be able to plug his replacement into your starting lineup.
ONCE THE SEASON STARTS
Free agency – Ninety percent of the work is done on draft day, but that doesn’t mean your job is done. The first few weeks of the season are very important. Pay attention to the box scores and see if there are any surprise players who may be available in your league’s free agent pool. Injuries will also crop up – if a stud goes down, don’t assume his owner drafted his backup. You might be able to pick up a starting RB or WR for next to nothing. Last year, Betts (1599 total yards, 5 TD), Maurice Jones-Drew (1377 total yards, 15 TD) and Marques Colston (70 receptions, 1038 yards, 8 TD) were probably on your league’s waiver wire at the start of the season.
Trades – As the season wears on, don’t be afraid to improve your team by way of trade. But don’t just trade for the sake of trading. Make sure that you are improving your team and follow the old rule of the stock market – buy low and sell high. If you have a player who is doing better than what you really think he’s consistently capable of, look to move him for an established (and possibly underachieving) star. Many owners will get discouraged if their stars aren’t performing and you may be able to take advantage.
SUMMARY
As in any endeavor, the more preparation you do prior to draft day, the better your draft will go. But don’t over-think things too much – there is such a thing as over preparation. Draft day is probably the best day of the fantasy football season – just relax and enjoy yourself.