2007 Fantasy Football Preview: Tight ends
08/10/2007
Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
The depth at tight end is once again strong this season, with eight solid starters and another 4-8 players capable of cracking the top 10. Most leagues require a TE, and it’s always nice to have a weapon at that position. Antonio Gates goes into the season with the most talent and the best situation, so he’s the consensus TE1 and a strong pick if he’s available in the third round.
The next seven players are fairly close in value, so it would be wise to wait until a few are off the board before trying to snatch one up. Don’t feel like you have to backup your starter if value doesn’t reveal itself during the draft. Tight end is one of those positions where there is always a surprise player (or two) that you can usually pick up off the waiver wire.
If you miss out on one of these top eight TEs, it would be wise to draft a starter and a backup fairly quickly, because you’ll be relying on a starter with some serious question marks surrounding him. It’ll be nice to have a solid backup in place in case he falters.
We’ve ranked the position in tiers in order to give you a better idea of how we view the dropoff within the position. In parenthesis, we’ve included the players Average Draft Position (ADP), which is the average round that the player is selected in Antsports’ 12-team leagues with a high performance scoring format. That system includes awarding one point per reception, so keep that in mind as you look through the tiers. We’ve also included the ADP ranking (TE1, TE2, etc.) to see where the player is going relative to his peers. All of the data is from mock drafts conducted at Antsports.com from July 15th to July 31st.
Antonio Gates, Chargers (TE1, 3.09)
71 receptions, 924 yards, 9 TD
After a terrific 2005, Gates was a bit of a disappointment in 2006. Even though he was still TE1 by a fairly wide margin, he just didn’t get the expected number of targets from QB Phillip Rivers. With Norv Turner taking the helm, expect the team to focus on getting Gates the ball more, which means another 1000-yard/9-10 TD season is well within reach. He is far and away the best TE in the game, and has the best chance of anyone to be TE1 again in 2007, making him a good pick in the third.
Chris Cooley, Redskins Always undervalued, Cooley’s numbers should rise with QB Jason Campbell at the helm.
Jason Witten, Cowboys
Witten’s production increased last season once Tony Romo took over. He won’t be targeted much in the redzone, but he’s sure-handed and steady.
Daniel Graham, Broncos
The Broncos feel that Graham can be a top 10 TE, which makes him a great value in the later rounds.
Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs The second tier is bunching up, and Gonzo and the Chiefs appear to be on the downswing.
Alge Crumpler, Falcons
With Michael Vick out, his numbers figure to dip. He’s not worth the draft pick you’d have to use to get him.
Desmond Clark, Bears
Don’t let last season’s numbers fool you. Aside from one big game, he faded in the second half and the team drafted Greg Olsen in the first round.
Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs (TE2, 5.11)
73 receptions, 900 yards, 5 TD
Even though Gonzo managed to finish as last season’s TE2, there are several guys nipping at his heels. He’s 31, the Chiefs’ offensive line is getting worse (forcing the team to use him as a blocker), and his QB appears to be Brodie Croyle. Still, he’s athletic and has great hands, and he’s the best receiver that KC has. He’s a good pick in the sixth or the seventh.
Todd Heap, Ravens (TE3, 6.07)
73 receptions, 765 yards, 6 TD
Heap has finished in the top 4 in four of the last five seasons. Despite having a reputation for getting dinged up, he played all 16 games in those four seasons. His yards per reception continue to dip as a result of Steve McNair’s dink and dunk approach in the passing game. He’s a good option in PPR leagues, but it doesn’t look like he’s going to break the 1000-yard barrier until the Ravens overhaul their offense.
Jeremy Shockey, Giants (TE4, 6.10)
66 receptions, 623 yards, 7 TD
The retirement of Tiki Barber should increase the number of looks Shockey gets in the passing game. However, his plethora of nagging injuries and Eli Manning’s erratic week-to-week play keeps Shockey’s expectations in check. But his annual production and his determination to stay on the field make him a solid pick in the sixth or the seventh.
57 receptions, 734 yards, 6 TD
After two top 5 finishes, you’d think Chris Cooley would get more respect. He has averaged 99 targets over the last two seasons, so you know he’s going to get his chances. During Jason Campbell’s seven-game audition as the starter, Cooley caught 30 balls for 411 yards and three scores. For a full season, that projects to 69/939/7, which would have made him TE2 last season. We predict that Campbell should have a nice season, so Cooley could find himself in the top 5 by season’s end, making him a terrific pick in the seventh or the eighth.
Vernon Davis, 49ers (TE5, 7.04)
20 receptions, 265 yards, 3 TD
In camp, Davis is reportedly catching on quickly to the mental side of football. In the last four games of 2006, he caught 13 passes for 196 yards and two scores. That projects to 52 catches for 784 yards and eight TD over 16 games, which would have been good for TE6 honors last season. Davis is a physical specimen and has a huge upside, but unlike a few of the guys being drafted later, he isn’t a sure thing (yet). If you do decide to take your chances, be sure to back him up with someone like Ben Watson or Randy McMichael. That way, you’ll have a proven TE to fall back on if Davis struggles.
Kellen Winslow, Browns (TE6, 7.05)
89 receptions, 875 yards, 3 TD
Winslow had microfracture surgery after his breakout season in 2006. Normally, it’s very dicey to come back healthy from this procedure, but Amare Stoudemire (of the Phoenix Suns) bounced back from the surgery to make the 1st Team All-NBA this year, so it’s not unheard of. Winslow is reportedly having a great camp and, if he stays healthy, should be able to meet or exceed his numbers from 2006. With his injury history, he’s somewhat of a risky pick.
64 receptions, 754 yards, 1 TD
With Tony Romo under center, Witten was on pace for an 830-yard season. His redzone looks keep going down, but was targeted 93 times last season, which is a lot for a TE. He has more value in PPR leagues where his catches and yardage make him a consistent, nearly risk-free TE to be had in the middle rounds.
56 receptions, 780 yards, 8 TD
Crumpler is recovering from offseason knee surgery and has to deal with the likely loss of Michael Vick, with whom he had a nice rapport. The new coaching regime plans to pass more, so that might offset some of the negatives, but with Joey Harrington under center, things are looking dicey in Atlanta. With all those question marks, he’s not worth the pick you’d have to use to get him.
L.J. Smith, Eagles (TE10, 9.11)
50 receptions, 611 yards, 5 TD
Over the past two seasons, when Donovan McNabb plays, L.J. Smith is a top 10 TE. But McNabb hasn’t proven that he can stay healthy, which increases Smith’s risk. Moreover, he’s coming off sports hernia surgery, but the news is that he’s ahead of schedule on his rehab. If McNabb looks good in the preseason, then Smith becomes a good option in the middle rounds as a borderline starter or a great backup.
Ben Watson, Patriots (TE11, 10.06)
49 receptions, 645 yards, 3 TD
If he hadn’t missed three games (or dropped more than a few balls), Ben Watson would have been a top 10 TE last season. Out goes Daniel Graham, but in come Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker. This would seem to hurt Watson’s chances, but Tom Brady usually throws to the open man, and with all the attention given to the new WR corps, Watson might be open a lot. There are reasons to be cautious (including upstart TE David Thomas vulturing catches), but in the ninth or tenth round, Watson is a great backup and a potential starter.
Randy McMichael, Rams (TE13, 11.09)
62 receptions, 640 yards, 3 TD
McMichael is reuniting with Scott Linehan in St. Louis. Linehan was the OC in Miami in 2005, which was McMichael’s second best fantasy season (60/582/5). Linehan has called McMichael an “every-down tight end,” so it’s clear he’s going to have opportunity. He’s still just 28, and could be very productive if the Rams choose to use him. He’s a great backup with decent upside.
21 receptions, 235 yard, 2 TD
Mysteriously, the Broncos gave Graham a huge contract, and have indicated that they want him to catch around 55 passes in 2007. Graham is talented, but in his career he’s missed almost a quarter of his games due to injury. If he catches 55 passes at his career ypc and TD rates, it would yield 638 yards and eight scores, which would have made him TE8 last season. That’s a stretch, but it’s clear that Graham is one of the better backup options out there and a great value in the later rounds.
Heath Miller, Steelers (TE12, 11.08)
34 receptions, 393 yards, 5 TD
The Steelers’ offense should be better, and more passing should benefit Miller. But let’s not get crazy. This is still Pittsburgh. Miller’s numbers should improve, making him a borderline starter in bigger leagues.
Owen Daniels, Texans (TE16, 13.03)
34 receptions, 350 yards, 5 TD
Daniels showed some flashes as a rookie, but will have to mesh with new QB Matt Schaub quickly in order to get off to a good start. Daniels has starter potential, but should begin the season as a reserve.
Greg Olsen, Bears (TE15, 12.10)
No stats in 2006 (rookie)
First-year TEs are notoriously unreliable, so expect a lot of inconsistency. The presence of Desmond Clark doesn’t help either, but Olsen is a terrific prospect and could breakout if he hits the ground running.
Eric Johnson, Saints (TE17, 14.02)
34 receptions, 292 yards, 2 TD
Johnson is by far the best pass-catching TE in New Orleans, but has never been able to stay healthy. If he can put 16 games together, he could be in for a big season.
Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars (N/A)
13 receptions, 126 yards, 1 TD
Lewis’ rookie season was thwarted by a high ankle sprain that knocked him out for two months. He has the physical tools of Antonio Gates, and could emerge as a viable TE this season.
Dallas Clark, Colts (TE14, 12.08)
30 receptions, 367 yards, 4 TD
Clark always seems to be an afterthought in the Colts offense, but he gets just enough looks to be a spot starter.
45 receptions, 626 yards, 6 TD
As a reward for his fine season, the Bears drafted Greg Olsen in the first round. Expect Clark to give up a number of his targets and for his numbers to decline.
Bo Scaife, Titans (N/A)
29 receptions, 370 yards, 2 TD
Scaife is the most productive TE in Tennessee. He played with Vince Young in Texas, and the duo has nice chemistry.
Jerramy Stevens, Bucs (N/A)
22 receptions, 231 yards, 4 TD
Stevens has all sorts of potential, but has never really been able to put it together. He’s a late-round flyer with upside.
Marcus Pollard, Seahawks (N/A)
12 receptions, 100 yards, 0 TD
Pollard is 35, but Seattle is expecting him to be very involved in their offense. If he has a nice preseason, he could be good in a reserve role.
Zach Miller, Raiders (N/A)
No stats in 2006 (rookie)
Many view Miller as the most complete TE in this summer’s draft, but it’s wise not to expect much from rookie TEs, especially those that play for the Raiders. A good preseason would make him draftable.
Leonard Pope, Cardinals (N/A)
16 receptions, 161 yards, 0 TD
Take a wait-and-see approach with Pope, who has potential, but hasn’t seen much action in Arizona.
Tony Scheffler, Broncos (TE21, 15.08)
18 receptions, 286 yards, 4 TD
Scheffler had some nice moments last season. But Denver gave big money to Daniel Graham, which doesn’t bode well for Scheffler’s prospects.
Ben Troupe, Titans (TE19, 14.09)
13 receptions, 150 yards, 2 TD
Troupe has potential, but seems to be limited by Bo Scaife’s presence.