2007 Fantasy Football Preview: Running backs

By: John Paulsen (jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com)

08/10/2007

Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home

Running backs are usually the backbone of any championship-caliber fantasy team. In leagues that require two starting backs, it’s a good idea to grab two with your first two picks, though there is some wiggle room to that strategy. As a general rule, if you decide to grab a receiver early, be sure to take your first two backs by the time you’re done with your fourth pick. In leagues that only require one RB starter (usually accompanied by a RB/WR “flex” position), it’s not nearly as important to grab two backs early. But be sure to back up your RB1 by the fifth or sixth round.

Heading into this season, there are three backs – we’ve dubbed them “The Studs” below – who appear to be head and shoulders above the rest: LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson. LT2 and Jackson are virtual no-brainers. LJ’s contract status and the possible presence of Priest Holmes are cause for concern, but if those situations settle down, he should be in for a big season as well.

If your pick is outside of the top 3, you have more work to do. This season, there doesn’t appear to be a huge difference between RB4 (Frank Gore) and RB19 (Cedric Benson), so you’ll have to carefully consider your options before moving forward.

We’ve ranked the position in tiers to give you a better idea of how we view the dropoff within the position. There are circumstances where you may want to select a player from a lower tier. For instance, if Brandon Jacobs looks good in the preseason, you may want to gamble on his upside and draft him ahead of Ahman Green. In parenthesis, we’ve included the players Average Draft Position (ADP), which is the average round that the player is selected in Antsports’ 12-team leagues with a high performance scoring format. That system awards one point per reception, so keep that in mind as you look through the tiers. We’ve also included the ADP ranking (RB1, RB2, etc.) to see where the player is going relative to his peers. All of the data is from mock drafts conducted at Antsports.com from July 15th to July 31st.

LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers (RB1, 1.01)
1815 rushing yards, 28 TD; 56 receptions, 508 rec yards, 3 TD
What can we say about LT2 that hasn’t already been said? The guy is the best fantasy player in the game and continues to make his case to be one of the best (if not the best) running back ever to lace ‘em up. The Chargers fired head coach Marty Shottenheimer after the season, but hired offensive mind Norv Turner, so don’t expect Tomlinson’s workload to decrease much, if any. He’s primed for another huge year and should be the #1 pick in every fantasy draft across the country. (But if you’re lucky enough to land the #1 pick, be sure to spend a middle round pick on Michael Turner as insurance.)

Steven Jackson, Rams (RB2, 1.02)
1528 rushing yards, 13 TD; 90 receptions, 806 rec yards, 3 TD
Jackson led the league in total yards from scrimmage last season. We knew the kid was good, but we didn’t know he was this good. In 2005, Jackson finally shook himself free of Marshall Faulk’s shadow and in 2006, the guy became a force of nature. He proved to be one of the league’s most dangerous dual threats, posting an eye-popping 90 catches, while rumbling along at 4.4 ypc. LT2 will probably find the endzone more often, but from a fantasy standpoint, that’s all he’s got on Jackson.

Larry Johnson, Chiefs (RB3, 1.03)
1789 rushing yards, 17 TD; 41 receptions, 410 rec yards, 2 TD
With Trent Green missing much of the 2006 season due to injury, the Chiefs leaned on LJ even more, and he responded, posting career highs in yards from scrimmage and receptions. The offensive line is not as strong as it once was, the QB situation is in flux, Priest Holmes may be back, and LJ has intimated that he may hold out if his contract status isn’t addressed. Also, he turns 28 this year and has carried the ball 752 times in the last two seasons. These issues give us pause, but we’re still optimistic about his prospects this season.

Laurence Maroney, Patriots
The Pats weren’t rushing out this summer to find another RB, so the shoulder should be fine. The entire New England offense is primed for a big season.

Ahman Green, Texans
Green showed last season that he still had some legs. The Texans will give him every opportunity, attempting to prove they didn’t overpay.

Brandon Jacobs, Giants
Worst case, you get a TD specialist. But Jacobs has wiggle, and will surprise people between the 20’s.

Willis McGahee, Ravens
His ypc isn’t good and he doesn’t catch any passes, which is murder in PPR leagues.

Kevin Jones, Lions
Detroit brought in all kinds of competition and it looks that KJ is only 50/50 to be ready Week 1.

Chester Taylor, Vikings
It’s only a matter of time before he gives way to Adrian Peterson. An early training camp injury doesn’t help his chances.

Frank Gore, 49ers (RB4, 1.04)
1695 rushing yards, 8 TD; 61 receptions, 485 rec yards, 1 TD
Yes, he has two surgically repaired knees. But the guy racked up 2180 total yards last season on a team without much of a passing attack to keep defenses honest. With the addition of Darrell Jackson, the inevitable emergence of Vernon Davis and a more mature Alex Smith, Gore should draw less attention this season. He’ll be hard pressed to match is 2006 numbers, but history has shown that RBs who go for 2000+ total yards fare pretty well the following season. Don’t worry too much about his broken hand; he should be ready to go by September.

Brian Westbrook, Eagles (RB7, 1.06)
1217 rushing yards, 7 TD; 77 receptions, 699 rec yards, 4 TD
The only real knock on Westy is his reputation for getting dinged up, but he’s missed just eight games in five seasons, and a couple of those came when the Eagles had already wrapped up their playoff spot. He’s a terrific receiver, an underrated inside runner and last season he established himself as his team’s #1 playmaker. His fantasy career is reminiscent of Tiki Barber’s - it took a long time for both guys to truly feel the draft day love. Westy’s ADP is solidly in the first round for the first time in his career.

Joseph Addai, Colts (RB5, 1.04)
1081 rushing yards, 7 TD; 40 receptions, 325 rec yards, 1 TD
Addai closed the postseason with six consecutive games of 14+ carries, rushing for 458 yards while catching 29 passes for 155 yards over the same span. At that pace, Addai is looking at a 1600+ combined yards, and that doesn’t even take into account the increased workload he’s likely to receive with the departure of Dominic Rhodes. However, Addai wasn’t able to stay healthy in college, so there is some doubt he’ll be able to carry the load for a 16-game NFL season. If he does, watch out.

Shaun Alexander, Seahawks (RB6, 1.06)
896 rushing yards, 7 TD; 12 receptions, 48 rec yards, 0 TD
Using his playoff stats to project to a full season, Alexander would have gone for about 1200 rushing yards and nine TD had he stayed healthy. He made a pretty nice push over his last five games, rushing for 482 yards and six scores, which projects to around 1500 yards and 19 TD. So which Alexander will we get? He’ll probably fall somewhere in between. Keep in mind that he has caught a total of 60 passes in the last three seasons, which isn’t very many.

Reggie Bush, Saints (RB8, 1.08)
558 rushing yards, 6 TD; 89 receptions, 748 rec yards, 2 TD
Bush didn’t set the league on fire immediately in his rookie season, but after a paltry 207 rushing yards in the first eight games (at a dreadful 2.6 ypc), he learned to be patient over the last half, rushing for 358 yards (at a much more palatable 4.8 ypc) and all eight of his scores. His remarkable receiving was pretty consistent, so if he’s able to continue his improved rushing, he projects to gain 1600+ combined yards in 2007.

Willie Parker, Steelers (RB9, 1.08)
1494 rushing yards, 13 TD; 31 receptions, 222 rec yards, 3 TD
After a pretty good 2005 campaign, “Fast” Willie really came into his own last season. Can he repeat? The Steelers’ offensive line isn’t going to suddenly forget how to block, so Parker is a relatively safe pick, though his week-to-week numbers are a little erratic. His lack of catches hurts him in PPR leagues and it’s possible that Najeh Davenport and Kevan Barlow might vulture some goal line carries, but he plays for one of the best rushing teams in the league, and his new head coach as intimated that he plans to give his star RB more snaps, so don’t shy away from Parker in the late first round. But be sure to keep an eye on that knee injury.

Laurence Maroney, Patriots (RB11, 1.11)
745 rushing yards, 6 TD; 22 receptions, 194 rec yards, 1 TD
Maroney had shoulder surgery in the offseason and it appears to be depressing his fantasy value heading into training camp. Corey Dillon is gone and if Maroney gets 50% of Dillon’s action, he’s looking at 1400 combined yards and 10 TD this season. If he gets 75% of Dillon’s action, the numbers would be more like 1700 yards and 13 TD. Either way, once fantasy owners see a healthy Maroney rushing the ball in the preseason, he might move up a few slots. And don’t worry about the arrival of Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth – the Pats will still feature a balanced attack and Maroney will be a big part of it.

Rudi Johnson, Bengals (RB10, 1.11)
1309 rushing yards, 12 TD; 23 receptions, 124 rec yards, 0 TD
Is time finally catching up to Rudi? Though he’s just 27, he has carried the ball 1254 times in the last four years and his bruising style doesn’t lend itself to longevity. He set a career low with 3.8 ypc in 2006 and doesn’t catch very many passes. That said, he has gained at least 1500 yards from scrimmage and scored 12 times in each of the last three seasons, and will continue to benefit from the attention paid to the Bengals’ passing attack, so he’s one of the safer picks in the late first/early second.

Travis Henry, Broncos (RB12, 1.12)
1211 rushing yards, 7 TD; 18 receptions, 78 rec yards, 0 TD
A word of caution: it’s risky to take a Denver RB – any Denver RB – this high in the draft as long as Mike Shanahan is the team’s head coach. That said, Henry’s prospects got a huge shot in the arm when he landed in Denver. The Broncos know how to run and Henry’s style fits the team’s attack. Tatum Bell was jettisoned, but Mike Bell is still around, so Henry won’t be guaranteed anything. If all goes well, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him match his 2002 season, when he posted almost 1700 total yards and scored 14 times.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins (RB14, 2.04)
1005 rushing yards, 5 TD; 33 receptions, 276 rec yards, 0 TD
Former Chargers offensive coordinator Cam Cameron now leads the ‘Fins, so expect Brown’s numbers to increase as his new coach installs the same RB-centric offense he ran in San Diego. Brown has a tendency to get dinged up, but his totals from last year were pretty solid considering that he missed three games due to injury and that the playcalling in the red zone was so bad. Brown is a guy that could make a big leap this season, possibly entering the realm of 1500-1700 total yards and double digit scores. Of course, if third round draft pick Lorenzo Booker vultures some carries and/or catches, Brown’s numbers won’t be quite that high.

Clinton Portis, Redskins (RB17, 2.10)
523 rushing yards, 7 TD; 17 receptions, 170 rec yards, 0 TD
Prior to last year’s injury-riddled season, Portis was one of the most prolific RBs in the league, posting an average of 1765 total yards from scrimmage along with 12 scores in his first four seasons. The news out of Washington has been good, so expect Portis to get back to his status as a RB1 with the caveat that Ladell Betts has earned a larger role with his great play last season. Still, Al Saunders loves the ground game, so if the ‘Skins run 500 times and Portis gets 60% of the carries, that’s 300 touches, not counting any receptions.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (RB15, 2.06)
941 rushing yards, 13 TD; 46 receptions, 436 rec yards, 2 TD
He’s not the starter for the Jags, but he’s a pretty good fantasy starter nonetheless. It’s going to be tough for MoJo to repeat his astounding rookie season. Fred Taylor re-signed and Greg Jones is back in the mix, but his ability to catch the ball should make him at least a capable (to good) RB2 in PPR leagues. Keep in mind that there were five games last year where Drew had seven or fewer touches, something that is unlikely to happen this season as long as he stays healthy. There’s definitely some risk, but he’s a solid pick in the late second/early third and has a monster upside if “Fragile” Fred goes down.

Edgerrin James, Cardinals (RB16, 2.07)
1159 rushing yards, 6 TD; 38 receptions, 217 rec yards, 0 TD
Edge’s first season in Arizona didn’t go as well as planned. He averaged just 3.4 ypc on the season, but did post a good 4.2 ypc over the last half. He’s an “old” 29, having already carried the ball 2525 times in his nine-year career, and there were some concerns that new head coach Ken Whisenhunt (formerly of the Steelers) was going to lighten his load. But Whisenhunt has stated he plans to get Edge 325 carries this season, which is just 12 fewer than last year’s total. Whisenhunt should also improve the Arizona O-line, which was pretty dreadful last season.

Thomas Jones, Jets (RB18, 3.02)
1209 rushing yards, 6 TD; 36 receptions, 154 rec yards, 0 TD
The Bears basically gave Jones to the Jets, apparently feeling like the vet’s presence was hindering Benson’s development. The Bears’ loss is the Jets’ gain. In Jones, the Jets get a talented and versatile back that is still in the prime of his career. He should immediately win the starting job, but be advised that Leon Washington will vulture some carries. TJ is another guy that should be a productive RB2 as a late second round/early third round draft pick.

Cedric Benson, Bears (RB19, 3.02)
647 rushing yards, 6 TD; 8 receptions, 54 rec yards, 0 TD
After two seasons of grumbling about being in Thomas Jones’ shadow, Benson will finally assume the role of RB1 in Chicago. Though he had just eight receptions last season, he has already shown better hands this summer. This bodes well for him potentially becoming an every down back, but rather than it be handed to him, he’ll probably grow into that role as the season wears on. Durability is a question mark, but he’s probably not going to lose his job. Given the Bears’ ability to run the ball, he should be a safe pick in the late second/early third.

Brandon Jacobs, Giants (RB20, 3.06)
423 rushing yards, 9 TD; 11 receptions, 149 rec yards, 0 TD
Tiki Barber’s retirement has given Jacobs the opportunity to be RB1 for the Giants. Some say he’s the next Frank Gore, while others don’t feel he has the ability to be a feature back. Even though the Giants brought in Reuben Droughns, this is Jacobs’ job to lose and he should develop into a good RB2 by season’s end. He’ll get all the goal line opportunities (even though he’s not all that good down there) and he has shown nice elusiveness and speed between the 20’s. Jacobs could very well surprise some people this season.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills (RB22, 4.02)
No stats in 2006 (rookie)
In Lynch, the Bills have landed a dynamic, versatile back that is able to run both inside and outside and can catch the ball out of the backfield. The team’s offensive line is improved, and as J.P. Losman and Lee Evans continue to mature, the team should enjoy more offensive success. This makes Lynch an interesting pick in the late third/early fourth, as there are not too many RBs that late in the draft with Lynch’s upside. He never carried the load while in college, so there is some question that he’ll be able to do just that in the NFL, but he should be a very good prospect as a RB3 who could grow into a nice RB2. Of course, that assumes head coach Dick Jauron stops talking about using a RBBC this season.

Adrian Peterson, Vikings (RB26, 5.02)
No stats in 2006 (rookie)
Chester Taylor had a nice season for the Vikings last season, but that didn’t stop the team from drafting Adrian Peterson. With Tavaris Jackson and Troy Williamson leading the way, Minnesota’s passing attack is among the league’s worst (if not the worst), so head coach Brad Childress will likely lean on a good ground game to stay competitive. This means that there should be enough carries to keep Peterson valuable even if he is splitting time with Taylor. However, it is more likely that Peterson will establish himself as the team’s RB1 by mid-season, potentially putting up top 10 numbers over the second half. That’s not bad for a guy going in the fourth or fifth round. One caveat: the guy has an injury history, so don’t be shocked if he spends some time in the training room.

DeAngelo Williams, Panthers (RB25, 4.08)
501 rushing yards, 1 TD, 33 receptions, 313 rec yards, 1 TD
It’s tempting to rank Williams higher, but he still hasn’t won the starting job in Carolina. Williams is a talented runner, but if he continues to split carries with DeShaun Foster, he’s not going to score consistently enough to be a good RB2. However, if Foster was to go down or Williams were to win the job in preseason, his value would skyrocket. Williams has more value in PPR leagues, where his terrific hands come in...um...handy.

Carnell Williams, Bucs (RB21, 3.10)
798 rushing yards, 1 TD; 30 receptions, 196 rec yards, 0 TD
Jon Gruden has said that he’d like to get Cadillac Williams 300 carries and 60 catches, as he now apparently envisions him as an every down back. If he gets that kind of run, he’ll likely crush preseason expectations that have him going in the third or fourth round. The offense should improve with the addition of QB Jeff Garcia, but the O-line is still pretty sketchy. Even so, if Williams is there in the fourth and you’ve already drafted one RB and two (stud) WRs, then you could do worse than the Caddy as your RB2.

Deuce McAllister, Saints (RB23, 4.07)
1057 rushing yards, 10 TD; 30 receptions, 198 rec yards, 0 TD
Reggie Bush’s improved rushing performance in the second half of the season means that the Saints are going to be hard pressed to get Deuce 244 carries again this year. Still, 1000+ total yards and 6-8 TD is not out of the question.

Fred Taylor, Jaguars (RB35, 7.09)
1146 rushing yards, 5 TD; 23 receptions, 242 rec yards, 1 TD
Even with the terrific season posted by rookie Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Taylor was still RB1 for the Jags. The team re-signed him at a pretty hefty price, so they must feel that Jones-Drew is not every down material. This is a good sign for Taylor, who should get enough opportunities to top 1000 yards for the seventh time in his career.

Jamal Lewis, Ravens (RB27, 5.06)
1132 rushing yards, 9 TD; 18 receptions, 115 rec yards, 0 TD
Even though he rushed for over 1100 yards last year, Lewis hasn’t looked like himself since the 2004 season. However, he will be the main ball carrier for the young Browns, who should improve this season. Also, Lewis says that the bone spurs in his ankle are gone, so it’s much easier to make cuts. This should help his mobility. Don’t expect Lewis to improve on his 2006 numbers, but he should be good for 1000 yards and six scores if he stays healthy.

Michael Turner, Chargers (RB39, 9.03)
502 rushing yards, 2 TD; 3 receptions, 47 rec yards, 0 TD
Turner should be targeted by LT2 owners looking for insurance or by savvy competitors looking to mess with the Tomlinson owner in their league. He would instantly become a top 5 back if Tomlinson were to go down, so he’s worth a middle round pick if you’re comfortable with your core guys.

Warrick Dunn, Falcons (RB37, 8.02)
1140 rushing yards, 4 TD; 22 receptions, 170 rec yards, 1 TD
It’s hard to get excited about Dunn’s prospects with the news that he’ll miss most (or all) of training camp after undergoing surgery for a herniated disc. Still, the guy’s a pro and he’s posted three consecutive seasons of 1300+ combined yards. The team will want to bring Jerious Norwood along, but if Dunn’s healthy, he’ll be involved.

Brandon Jackson, Packers (RB34, 7.07)
No stats in 2006 (rookie)
The Packers picked Jackson in the second round of the 2007 draft and he’ll likely battle Vernand Morency for the starting job. He’s a talented runner, but he didn’t carry the load in Nebraska, so the team could very well go with a two- or three-headed attack.

DeShaun Foster, Panthers (RB40, 9.04)
897 rushing yards, 3 TD; 32 receptions, 159 rec yards, 0 TD
Foster is still listed atop the Panthers’ depth chart, so keep a close eye on his battle for DeAngelo Williams for the honor of being the team’s RB1.

Ladell Betts, Redskins (RB38, 8.05)
1154 rushing yards, 4 TD; 53 receptions, 445 rec yards, 1 TD
The big question is just how much time did Betts earn with his terrific performance filling in for Clinton Portis last season? Unless Portis gets injured again, it’s unlikely that he’ll get more than 35-40% of the carries, but he’s a must-handcuff for Portis owners.

Julius Jones, Cowboys (RB29, 6.02)
1084 rushing yards, 4 TD; 9 receptions, 142 rec yards, 0 TD
The news is murky out of Dallas, with one report saying the new coaches prefer Jones over Marion Barber, while another says that the two players (and maybe even a third, Tyson Thompson) will split carries. For what it’s worth, Jones is entering a contract year, so expect a lot of effort. He is also happy with the new running scheme, which will give him the freedom he didn’t have under Bill Parcells.

Chester Taylor, Vikings (RB33, 7.03)
1216 rushing yards, 6 TD; 42 receptions, 288 rec yards, 0 TD
It’s strange to see a guy with Taylor’s line this far down the list, but that’s what happens when your franchise drafts the best rusher in college football to be your teammate. Taylor will still serve as the team’s third down back, but with Adrian Peterson waiting in the wings, he’s unlikely to hold on to the starting job for long.

Kevin Jones, Lions (RB36, 7.10)
689 rushing yards, 6 TD; 61 receptions, 520 rec yards, 2 TD
KJ actually had a pretty good 2006 despite the foot injury that ended his season. It doesn’t look like he’ll be ready to roll for Week 1. If he comes in late, he’ll probably have to usurp Tatum Bell to get the starting job back. The longer he’s out, the tougher that will be.

Vernand Morency, Packers (RB41, 9.05)
434 rushing yards, 2 TD; 17 receptions, 118 rec yards, 0 TD
The word out of Houston was that Morency’s style wasn’t a fit for a zone-blocking ground game, but that’s what the Packers run, and he did pretty well (4.6 ypc) in limited duty. The Green Bay RB battle is definitely one to watch, as the winner – assuming there is a winner - would hold considerable value in the fifth or sixth round of a fantasy draft.

Leon Washington, Jets (RB48, 12.06)
650 rushing yards, 4 TD; 25 receptions, 270 rec yards, 0 TD
Washington had a pretty good rookie season (4.3 ypc) for the Jets, but the acquisition of Thomas Jones wasn’t a vote of confidence for Washington. The price for TJ was low, but the move makes Washington one of those dangerous backups who will vulture carries and then capably take over if necessary.

Chris Henry, Titans (RB45, 11.08)
No stats in 2006 (rookie)
The Titans drafted Henry to give LenDale White some competition, but if he has a great camp he could very well end up as the Titans’ top back.

Chris Brown, Titans (RB42, 9.09)
156 rushing yards, 0 TD; 2 receptions, 4 rec yards, 0 TD
Keep an eye on the battle to be RB1 for the Titans. Brown is a vet and could take the reins if LenDale White and Chris Henry aren’t up to the task.

Dominic Rhodes, Raiders (RB44, 11.03)
641 rushing yards, 5 TD; 36 receptions, 251 rec yards, 0 TD
It’s never a good sign to say, “once he returns from his four game suspension,” but that’s exactly the situation Rhodes finds himself in after violating the league’s substance abuse policy. When he gets back, he’ll fight Lamont Jordan and rookie Michael Bush for carries.