2007 Fantasy Football Preview: Quarterbacks
08/10/2007
Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
Once again, there is a ton of depth this year at QB, so for those leagues that only require one starter, it’s usually a good idea to wait until the middle rounds before drafting one. Peyton Manning is an obvious exception, and isn’t a bad pick in the second round if the RB or WR options aren’t appealing. Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Marc Bulger make up the next tier, and are good picks in the fourth or fifth rounds. There appears to be a dropoff after QB5 (Bulger) to QB6 (Donovan McNabb), mainly because of the McNabb’s vast injury history. After that, there are quite a few players who have the potential of finishing in the top 10, so it’s a good strategy to load up on backs, wideouts and tight ends and take someone like Phillip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger (or both) in the eighth and/or ninth round. There also appears to be a big dropoff after QB17 (Brett Favre), so be sure to have a starter (or two) by then.
We’ve ranked the position in tiers in order to give you a better idea of how we view the dropoff within the position. In parenthesis, we’ve included the players Average Draft Position (ADP), which is the average round that the player is selected in Antsports’ 12-team leagues with a high performance scoring format. We’ve also included the ADP ranking (QB1, QB2, etc.) to see where the player is going relative to his peers. All of the data is from mock drafts conducted at Antsports.com from July 15th to July 31st.
Note: If there isn’t a rushing TD listed, then the player did not rush for a score in 2006.
Peyton Manning, Colts (QB1, 2.02)
4397 passing yards, 31 TD, 9 INT; 36 rushing yards, 4 TD
Manning is far and away the best fantasy QB in the game. He’s consistent, dependable, and plays with what is arguably the best supporting cast in the league. While we usually recommend waiting to draft a QB, Manning is the exception. He becomes a good value in the second round of most drafts.
Carson Palmer, Bengals (QB2, 3.07)
4036 passing yards, 28 TD, 13 INT; 35 rushing yards
Palmer bounced back from knee surgery to have a terrific season. He has one of the best WR duos in the league in Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but there isn’t much depth in the Cincinnati receiving corps, assuming Chris Henry is unavailable. Considering that you can get a similar output from the next few guys, Palmer only becomes a good value if he slips into the late third/early fourth.
Tom Brady, Patriots (QB3, 4.03)
3533 passing yards, 24 TD, 12 INT; 102 rushing yards
Brady had another excellent season in 2006 while throwing to the likes of Reche Caldwell and Troy Brown, so imagine what he can accomplish with Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth on board. Although he will have the occasional pedestrian stat line, Brady seems to be a sure thing to finish in the top five, which makes him one of the safest picks at the position. He’ll be a nice grab in the fourth and a steal in the fifth.
Drew Brees, Saints (QB4, 4.08)
4424 passing yards, 26 TD, 11 INT; 32 rushing yards
After being passed over by the Chargers (and the Dolphins, who were concerned about his shoulder), Brees had an outstanding season for the Saints. The team figures to throw a bit less as they use Reggie Bush more in the ground game and/or the rest of the league catches up with Sean Peyton’s passing scheme. But Brees is still a terrific option at QB, especially as the fourth round wears on.
Marc Bulger, Rams (QB5, 4.12)
4301 passing yards, 24 TD, 8 INT; 44 rushing yards
When he stays healthy, Marc Bulger is a perennial top 10 QB. His already dangerous supporting cast became even scarier with the addition of Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael. The only question mark is his durability. He missed half of 2005 and his O-line gave up the fourth most sacks last season. Even with that risk, Bulger is a very solid pick in the fifth, especially considering the Rams’ relatively easy schedule.
Ben Roethlisberger, SteelersBig Ben had to overcome a lot of adversity early in the year (motorcycle accident, appendectomy) but he finished in the top 10. Expect a breakout season in a new, pass-friendly offense.
Jon Kitna, Lions
Kitna plays in the perfect system for a QB. As long as he can stay healthy, he should be a shoe in to finish in the top 10.
Phillip Rivers, Chargers
One year of experience as the starter. Marty Shottenheimer out, Norv Turner in. ‘Nuff said.
Michael Vick, FalconsHe’ll have a lot of time to reflect on his decision to (allegedly) run a
dog-fighting ring out of his house. What an idiot.
Jake Delhomme, Panthers
With David Carr on board, expect a shorter leash.
Matt Schaub, Texans
With basically the same supporting cast, there’s no guarantee that he’ll fare any better than Carr did.Donovan McNabb, Eagles (QB6, 5.03)
2647 passing yards, 18 TD, 6 INT; 212 rushing yards, 3 TD
McNabb should be in “The Stars” tier, but he’s just too big of an injury risk. He has missed 13 games over the last two seasons, most recently with a torn ACL. Carson Palmer’s recovery from the same injury is a good sign, but that doesn’t mean that McNabb will stay healthy. If he plays a full season, he’ll almost certainly finish in the top 10 at his position, probably the top five. If you do draft him, be sure to back him up with a QB from one of the first four tiers.
Jon Kitna, Lions (QB7, 6.01)
4208 passing yards, 21 TD, 22 INT; 156 rushing yards, 2 TD
Jon Kitna isn’t going to wow anyone with his physical skills, but he’s capable and he plays in one of the most pass-friendly systems in the league. His WR corps is upgraded with the arrival of Calvin Johnson, but the Lions should still be trailing plenty, which means lots of attempts for Kitna. The O-line is a concern so he is an injury risk, but he’s a cheap option that is a sure bet to land in the top 10 if he’s able to stay healthy.
Vince Young, Titans (QB9, 7.02)
2199 passing yards, 12 TD, 13 INT; 553 rushing yards, 7 TD
It’s not often that rookie QBs live up to the hype, but once Young got comfortable, he turned in a number of great performances. Over the last half of the season, he racked up 1437 passing yards and seven passing TD along with 415 rushing yards and five rushing scores. Project those numbers over 16 games and Young would have been the #2 fantasy QB in the league. We’re always a little leery about sophomore production when a young QB has early success, as opposing defenses have a full offseason to gameplan against him. As raw as Young’s arm is, he should still be able to rack up a lot of rushing yards, so his point production week-to-week should be pretty consistent. Drew Bennett is gone, though, and the team hasn’t done anything to replace him.
Tony Romo, Cowboys (QB8, 6.08)
2903 passing yards, 19 TD, 13 INT; 102 rushing yards
It’s unclear how the departure of Bill Parcells is going to affect Romo’s production this season. Also, new OC Jason Garrett will be calling plays for the first time. Still, Romo is throwing to one of the best receiving units in the league and should benefit from an offseason as the established starter. While there are some question marks, most signs point to Romo cracking the top 10 this season.
3528 passing yards, 18 TD, 23 INT; 98 rushing yards, 2 TD
After last summer’s motorcycle accident, Big Ben never quite looked right in 2006. Even so, over the last 12 games he averaged 245 passing yards and 1.5 TD, finishing in the top 10. The new coaching regime plans to throw quite a bit more, which should only help Roethlisberger’s numbers. Big Ben is a great value pick for those who want to load up on other positions during the first seven or eight rounds. He should be an absolute steal in the late eighth or early ninth.
3387 passing yards, 22 TD, 9 TD; 53 rushing yards
Rivers took over for Drew Brees and never looked back. He didn’t set the world on fire, but he was consistent, efficient and capable. With Norv Turner in (and Marty Shottenheimer out), expect a few more passes, especially if Vincent Jackson starts to emerge as a viable WR1. The Chargers’ schedule isn’t easy, but it projects to be easier than in 2006, so Rivers should progress in his second full season as the starter.
2442 passing yards, 18 TD, 15 INT; 110 rushing yards
The loss of Darrell Jackson is going to hurt but if D.J. Hackett can fill his shoes, Hasselbeck’s numbers shouldn’t be drastically affected. Also working in his favor is the fact that his schedule figures to be much easier this season. The offensive line is in flux but if he can stay upright, he has a good chance of cracking the top 10. However, there is more uncertainty heading into the season, which makes Hasselbeck a risky pick when there are better options (namely, Ben Roethlisberger and Phillip Rivers) available later.
Jay Cutler, Broncos (QB13, 8.06)
1001 passing yards, 9 TD, 5 INT; 18 rushing yards
Projecting Cutler’s five-game stats over a full season yields an impressive 3203 passing yards and 29 TD. While he’s not likely to throw that many scores, he did show the poise and decision-making that prompted Mike Shanahan to make him the starter. With Rod Smith iffy, Cutler will need a second receiving option to emerge (Brandon Marshall? Daniel Graham? Brandon Stokley?) to complement Javon Walker. Denver’s schedule is a bit tougher but Cutler should improve, so his performance last season (likely with slightly fewer TD) is a good gauge for 2007, making him a borderline starter. If he looks great in the preseason, move him up a few spots.
Matt Leinart, Cardinals (QB11, 8.01)
2542 passing yards, 11 TD, 12 INT; 44 rushing yards, 2 TD
Leinart’s 2006 projects to 3396 passing yards and 15 scores over a full season. Out goes Dennis Green and in comes Ken Whisenhunt, who promises to run the ball more, which will cut into Leinart’s pass attempts. However, Whisenhunt should make Leinart a more efficient QB, which will help his numbers. With Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to throw to, it’s hard to see Leinart regressing much in his second season, assuming the O-line holds up. He won’t set the world on fire, but he should be a solid QB2 and spot starter in 2007.
Eli Manning, Giants (QB14, 9.05)
3244 passing yards, 24 TD, 18 INT; 21 rushing yards
Eli Manning struggled in the last half of the season, which is not a good sign going into this year. However, there are reasons for optimism. With Tiki Barber gone, there will be a greater onus placed on the passing game, new OC Kevin Gilbride loves to throw the ball, and the Giants once again have a favorable schedule. Despite all his struggles, Manning was on the verge of cracking the top 10 last season, so if he sees a jump in his attempts, he could very well become a fantasy starter by year’s end.
Brett Favre, Packers (QB17, 9.12)
3885 passing yards, 18 TD, 18 INT; 28 rushing yards, 1 TD
In his illustrious 15-year career, Favre has only finished outside the fantasy top 10 twice; he was 11th in 2002 and 13th in 2005. His ADP is obviously depressed by those who think that he’ll suddenly hit the wall, but savvy owners see value where others do not. He is better suited to be a spot starter (possibly amongst a QBBC approach), but assuming Donald Driver is healthy by September, it’s quite likely that Favre will post another top 10 to top 15 season, making him a good value in the eighth or ninth.
Alex Smith, 49ers (QB19, 10.12)
2890 passing yards, 16 TD, 16 INT; 151 rushing yards, 2 TD
The addition of Darrell Jackson, a healthy Vernon Davis and an easier schedule should all add up to better numbers for Smith, who was good at times in his sophomore season. New OC Jim Hostler’s attack will more closely resemble the West Coast offense, which should improve Smith’s accuracy and efficiency. Don’t draft him as a starter, but consider him a solid QB2 with some upside.
J.P. Losman, Bills (QB22, 12.03)
3049 passing yards, 19 TD, 14 INT; 140 rushing yards, 1 TD
Losman (right) is still learning, but he was a bit more consistent last season, and is really starting to jive with WR Lee Evans. Another year of growth and an easier schedule should translate to an uptick in his numbers, making him a good QB2 option.
1297 passing yards, 10 TD, 6 INT; 112 rushing yards
Campbell’s seven-game stint as the Redskins’ starter projects to 2964 yards and 23 scores over a full season, and he can run a little as well. With a full offseason as the established starter under his belt (as well as a chance to mesh with Santana Moss), Campbell is poised for a nice season under offensive guru Al Saunders, making him a good QB2 prospect, especially if Moss can stay healthy.
1158 passing yards, 7 TD, 5 INT; 41 rushing yards, 2 TD
After missing 15 games over the last two seasons, Leftwich has deservedly earned a reputation for being a bit fragile. His per game output in 2006 was nice, and if he can stay healthy, he’s got a shot to crack the top 15. He’s entering a contract year, so expect him to put forth maximum effort.
Chad Pennington, Jets (QB21, 12.01)
3352 passing yards, 17 TD, 16 INT; 111 rushing yards
Pennington isn’t on rock-solid ground as the Jets’ starter, but he had a pretty nice season (save for the picks) in 2006. With Thomas Jones on board and Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery to throw to, he has enough weapons to be an effective QB2, albeit with very little upside.
2805 passing yards, 17 TD, 11 INT; 12 rushing yards
Delhomme’s stock took a hit when the Panthers signed David Carr to be his backup. While, it’s clear that his job security isn’t as high as it was last summer, he’s still a capable QB2 with the ability to start against certain competition. A good preseason would buy him a longer leash once the regular season starts.
Rex Grossman, Bears (QB24, 13.07)
3193 passing yards, 23 TD, 20 INT; 2 rushing yards
Grossman was erratic in 2006, but should benefit from an easier schedule and another year as the established starter. He has some weapons around him, but he’s far too inconsistent to be counted on as a starter. Treat him as a QB2 with some upside, or as a part of a QBBC who will play well against weak defenses.
Steve McNair, Ravens (QB25, 13.11)
3050 passing yards, 16 TD, 12 INT; 119 rushing yards, 1 TD
With his DUI scare behind him, McNair should be able to post decent QB2 numbers, assuming he stays healthy. The schedule is a bit easier and the team added Willis McGahee, so the running game should be stronger. McNair has very little upside, but he’s capable of putting up good numbers as a spot starter.
Matt Schaub, Texans (QB20, 11.12)
208 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT; 21 rushing yards
The Texans paid a hefty price for Schaub (two second-round draft picks and a new $48 million contract) so he’s entrenched as their starter. Ahman Green should provide support and Schaub has one of the league’s best WRs in Andre Johnson to throw to. But the O-line isn’t very good in pass protection, so his upside seems limited. Still, head coach Gary Kubiak should be able to make the offense at least decent, which means Schaub should be an OK option as a fantasy backup.
Jeff Garcia, Bucs (QB23, 13.01)
1309 passing yards, 10 TD, 2 INT; 87 rushing yards
Garcia saved the Eagles’ season in 2006, and earned a nice contract from the Bucs as a reward. There, he joins what should be a decent offense. He’s 37, so it’s tough to get too excited about his prospects, but he could surprise if Carnell Williams and Michael Clayton emerge as legitimate weapons.
Trent Green, Dolphins (QB27, 14.09)
1342 passing yards, 7 TD, 9 INT; 59 rushing yards
Like Jeff Garcia, Trent Green is an aging vet who is changing situations. At press time, he hasn’t yet been named the starter. But when he is, expect decent production, assuming he can stay healthy. He’s one concussion away from hanging ‘em up.
Joey Harrington, Falcons (N/A)
2236 passing yards, 12 TD, 15 INT; 17 rushing yards
With Michael Vick likely out for the year, Harrington will get all sorts of opportunity. Atlanta’s WR corps is weak, so don’t expect much.
Charlie Frye, Browns (N/A)
2449 passing yards, 10 TD, 17 INT; 215 rushing yards, 3 TD
It will be interesting to see how Frye performs with Brady Quinn breathing down his neck. The longer Quinn holds out, the better Frye’s prospects look. If the Browns lose early, look for Quinn (or even Derek Anderson) to take over mid-season.
Brodie Croyle, Chiefs (N/A)
23 passing yards, 0 TD, 2 INT; -3 rushing yards
Damon Huard played really well last season, but Herm Edwards seems to think that Croyle is the QB of the future in KC. Don’t expect much from the first-year starter.
Tavaris Jackson, Vikings (N/A)
475 passing yards, 2 TD, 4 INT; 79 rushing yards, 1 TD
The Minnesota passing game is considered one of the very worst in the league. Jackson seems to have the confidence of the coaching staff, so that’s a plus. He’s a former second round pick, so there’s a chance he could surprise.
Daunte Culpepper, Raiders (N/A)
929 passing yards, 2 TD, 3 INT; 20 rushing yards, 1 TD
Culpepper found a home, but don’t expect much unless he has a great preseason and JaMarcus Russell continues to hold out.
JaMarcus Russell, Raiders (N/A)
No stats in 2006 (rookie)
Chances are that Russell will be starting for the Raiders at some point this season. He has a big arm, but so did Aaron Brooks.
Brady Quinn, Browns (N/A)
No stats in 2006 (rookie)
Once he signs, he’ll compete with Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson for the starting job. He’s probably a year or three away from fantasy relevance.
Damon Huard, Chiefs (N/A)
1878 passing yards, 11 TD, 1 INT; 9 rushing yards
Despite a terrific season, Huard is once again relegated to backup duty as Herm Edwards sees Brodie Croyle as the team’s QB of the future.
Derek Anderson, Browns (N/A)
793 passing yards, 5 TD, 8 INT; 47 rushing yards
Anderson will continue to compete with Charlie Frye for the starting job in Cleveland.
Michael Vick, Falcons (QB15, 9.07)
2474 passing yards, 20 TD, 13 INT; 1039 rushing yards, 2 TD
With his legal troubles, it’s doubtful that Vick is going to see much action this season. If it looks like he might play by the time your draft rolls around, he’s only worth a late round flyer.