2007 Fantasy Football Preview: Power Players
08/10/2007
Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
Every year, there are players who hold the fate of fantasy teams all around the world in their hands. We like to think of them as power players, guys whose performances will make or break your draft, guys who could represent the difference between playoff contender and sinking ship. Some guys are high picks who, for one reason or another, carry some tangible risk but whose skills and potential make them too tantalizing to pass on. Some are mid-round selections who have a chance to considerably outperform their draft position. And then there are the “give or take” guys, those players whose draft-day value is tough to quantify because they could deliver sensational numbers…or they could fall flat on their facemasks.
Randy Moss, Willie Parker, Joseph Addai and Ben Roethlisberger were all fantasy power players last year. Parker and Addai rewarded owners who believed their production would outweigh their draft position, Roethlisberger answered questions about the lingering effects of his motorcycle accident by posting the worst numbers of his short career, and Randy Moss...well, he just stunk up the joint and burned every owner who "had a hunch" that Moss would rebound last year.
Below, we've got 12 power players for the 2007 season: four quarterbacks, four running backs, three receivers and one tight end. Some of them are risky first-round picks, some are potential bargain buys and some are of the give-or-take variety. Regardless of their classifications, they’re all players whose performances will help determine which way the balance of power swings in your league this year.
QUARTERBACKS
Donovan McNabb, Eagles
Early reports on McNabb have been nothing but positive following last year’s knee injury and subsequent season-ending surgery. McNabb recently estimated that he’s playing at about 75%, so there’s still some work to be done, but all signs point to the quarterback being ready for Week 1 against the Packers. Currently, McNabb has been going somewhere around the fifth round, which may seem reasonable to some owners but, in actuality, is a fairly steep price to pay for a QB coming off major knee surgery. Owners who take McNabb in the fifth surely will have visions of Carson Palmer dancing in their heads, but his questionable cast of receivers combined with his growing injury history make McNabb one of the biggest boom-or-bust picks in the game this year.
Jon Kitna, Lions
Kitna’s a guy whose superior supporting cast far outweighs his average skills, which makes him a bit tough to read. On the one hand, it’d be unwise to count on another 4,200 passing yards, but on the other, it’s reasonable to expect a few more than the 21 TD tosses he totaled last year with stud rookie Calvin Johnson in town. Ideally, Kitna is someone who would represent an excellent value buy in about the seventh round, but with everyone calling for a big year from him, you may need to reach into the fifth to get him. At that price, even if Kitna has a solid year, he’s far less likely to exceed draft expectations.
Tony Romo, Cowboys
Everyone remembers the botched hold, but if you’ve got your eye on the Cowboys’ 27-year-old quarterback, his playoff blunder should make Romo far more affordable this season. Lots of heavy superlatives were being tossed around when Romo took over for the inept Drew Bledsoe last year, but a late-season funk followed by the postseason gaffe has some questioning the quarterback’s long-term outlook. In other words, good luck trying to get a read on Romo’s draft stock. He could fall into someone’s lap in the eighth round and go on to be one of your draft’s biggest steals, or someone could jump up and take him in the fifth round and regret that pick for the rest of the season. We’d prefer to play the upside angle and take Romo only as a value pick after the sixth round, but either way, he’ll likely make or break many fantasy teams (and the Cowboys) in 2007.
J.P. Losman, Bills
There just might be something brewing in Buffalo. Gone is Willis McGahee in favor of dynamic rookie Marshawn Lynch, and while he doesn’t have a reliable receiver demanding attention on the other side of the field, that hasn’t stopped Lee Evans from becoming one of the most explosive deep threats in football. Okay, so the Bills aren’t going to challenge the Colts for offensive supremacy but they’ll be able to score some points if fourth-year QB J.P. Losman can take another step forward this season. The Tulane alum was solid in his first year as Buffalo’s starter, throwing for 3,010 yards and 19 scores, numbers some feel he’ll improve upon this season. Still, Losman has more doubters than believers at this stage in his career, which means you'll be able to get him as a QB2 in your draft, and there’s upside beyond that.
RUNNING BACKS
Larry Johnson, Chiefs
What to do with LJ? Everyone knows he’s a workhorse, one of the few backs left in football who can be counted on to take the lion’s share of his team’s carries. Unfortunately, this workhorse toted the ball 416 times last year. You don’t need a calculator to know that’s a lot. In fact, you’ll find all sorts of people laying out evidence that suggests Johnson should not be trusted this year thanks to last season’s workload. Even worse, there are serious concerns about the Chiefs’ offense, particularly along the offensive line. Nonetheless, Johnson will be a top-five pick at worst in most leagues this season, making him a scary proposition for some owners. If he bucks the apparent trend, LJ will again be one of fantasy’s most consistent scorers, but if he does in fact break down, he’ll torpedo millions of fantasy teams.
Shaun Alexander, Seahawks
Speaking of torpedoing fantasy teams…. Owners cursed Alexander last season after he came into the year as one of the unquestioned Big Three (along with LT and LJ) and finished with less than 900 rushing yards and only seven touchdowns. A broken foot was the main culprit (although some will blame the Madden cover jinx), but losses along the offensive line played a big role as well. Of course the question now is, how should you value Alexander this season? With so many question marks in the first round, some owners have been making him a top-five pick, while others have been able to wait until the end of the first round to take him. If he truly is healthy, Alexander should again be a dependable scorer and a potential bargain in the back half of round one. If, however, 2006 marked the beginning of the end for the 30-year-old Alexander, fantasy owners will again be cursing him this season.
Brandon Jacobs, Giants
If fantasy owners drafted for the upcoming season in the weeks following Tiki Barber’s retirement announcement last October, Brandon Jacobs probably would’ve been a first-round pick in most leagues. But once the initial lovefest for Tiki’s gargantuan replacement died down, questions about the Giants’ offense in general, Eli Manning in particular, and Jacobs’ ability to handle a starter's workload caused his stock to sink considerably, to the point where some owners will be able to grab Jacobs in the third round. Reports have Jacobs working with Eddie George on lowering his pads and taking more advantage of his size, a scary thought considering he’s also been running the 40 in the mid-4.4s. At the very least, the Giants seem committed to Jacobs, and he's got the makings of a more explosive Rudi Johnson. If he manages to log 250 carries, you could be staring at a top-10 back in the third round.
Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers
If you lined up all the fantasy owners who hated Shaun Alexander last season next to all the fantasy owners who hated Cadillac Williams, Alexander’s line would be longer, but not by much. Caddy was a first-round pick in most '06 drafts, coming off a huge rookie campaign and talk that Jon Gruden was going to get him more involved in the passing game. Instead, he played in just 14 games due to injury, delivered a 3.5 yards/carry average and only found the end zone twice. So why is he on this list? Simple: he’ll get the ball. Of course, opportunity alone doesn’t drive a player’s value, but while you can question Cadillac’s durability, there are very few questions about his talent. If he can avoid the injury bug and become more of a threat in the passing game, Williams should exceed the third- or fourth-round pick most owners will have to use on him. If he can’t? His days as a fantasy option may be done, and the Bucs may be looking for a new starting RB.
RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
Terrell Owens, Cowboys
These days, T.O. is just about the best example of a boom-or-bust pick. Everyone in your league knows what kind of numbers he’s capable of (1,180 yards, 13 TD last year), so don’t be surprised if someone reaches for Owens in the second round. Too high? Well, with Bill Parcells out of the Big D, it’s not outrageous to expect T.O.’s numbers to improve a bit this season. Now, we’re not suggesting that you draft him based on those improved numbers, but understand that wherever you wind up taking T.O., you may very well be selecting fantasy’s #1 receiver by season’s end. Also understand that you may not have him for 16 games, between injuries and whatever, um…disciplinary actions he may earn. Hey, what kind of boom-or-bust pick would he be if there wasn’t some considerable risk involved?
Andre Johnson, Texans
In terms of sheer talent, there aren’t many better receivers in the game than Andre Johnson. Considering the 6-3 wideout could be had with a fourth- or fifth-round pick in some leagues, there also aren’t many better high-upside selections on draft day. Some would argue that Johnson had a mediocre season last year, yet he led the league with 103 receptions and set a career high with 1,147 yards. In fact, the only thing mediocre about Johnson is his supporting cast, but the Texans are hoping Matt Shaub can succeed where David Carr couldn’t. Of course, Shaub will need some help from an improving offensive line in his first year as a starter, but a revamped running game should give the former Atlanta backup a chance to settle in a bit and make good use of his most dangerous weapon. We’re counting on Johnson catching fewer balls but making more big plays in ’07, which would make him one of the best early round bargains at the position.
Vincent Jackson, Chargers
If it’s low-risk, high-reward that you’re looking for, check out San Diego’s new #1 receiver. With defenses forced to focus on LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates, the 6-5 Jackson could be on his way to a third-year leap. He’ll see plenty of single coverage and should have a better rapport with Philip Rivers in the young QB’s second season as the team’s starter. What kind of upside are we talking about here? Well, Jackson made just 27 catches last year, but six of them went for touchdowns. Project that over a full season of starts in one of the game’s most explosive offenses and you’ve got a tantalizing upside pick in the middle rounds.
Vernon Davis, 49ers
A recent report claimed that San Fran’s second-year tight end has looked “virtually unstoppable” in camp. Of course, considering his measureables (6-3, 253 pounds), his 4.4 forty speed and the fact that some people like to call him the Freak, such glowing praise for Vernon Davis isn’t at all surprising. But be careful here, because tight ends generally tend to be hit or miss in the fantasy realm to begin with. Add to that the fact that a broken leg limited Davis to 10 games as a rookie, and you’ve got a guy who could be overvalued come draft day. We’re not saying we don’t love his game, but with everybody talking Davis up as a sleeper, you may have to pony up a fifth- or sixth-round pick to get him.