Fantasy Baseball Preview: Relief Pitchers
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Like catchers, different owners have different strategies for drafting closers. Some absolutely have to have one of the elite options, even if it costs them a third-round pick, while others get one or two decent stoppers and then cruise the waiver wire all season looking for cheap saves. Some will even stock their teams with as many great closers as they can get their hands on in hopes of cornering the market, owning three categories (saves, ERA and WHIP) and then trading off spare saves throughout the season to plug holes.
We would prefer to have that one stud anchoring our bullpen, thinking if you get the right guy he'll not only help with saves, but he'll also give you a ton of strikeouts and keep your ERA and WHIP in check. That said, we rarely are willing to burn an early pick on someone like K-Rod or B.J. Ryan, and instead prefer swinging a deal during the season for a guy like that with an owner desperately seeking sluggers. That way we have a very clear idea of what our team needs are and what we can afford to deal, and we almost always wind up getting better value trading for a closer than we do drafting one in March.
Beyond that, there are always some very good value buys in the middle rounds if you're in need of saves and you know what to look for. Find guys who had good-not-great save totals the year before but supplemented their numbers with a solid strikeout rate. Chris Ray and Brian Fuentes are good examples. Also target hard throwers who will get a shot at the full-time job. Jose Valverde fits that description. Finally, look for the next big thing -- identify the high-strikeout set-up men with the best chance of taking over in the ninth inning, like Jonathan Broxton and Joel Zumaya. Even if they don't get you many saves, the right middle reliever can still give you the strikeout, ERA and WHIP help you're looking for.
*NOTE: All analysis based on standard 5x5 roto leagues
THE STUDS
Joe Nathan, Twins
36 saves, 2 BS, 7 wins, 1.58 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 95 K, 16 BB, 68.1 IP
It’s practically a coin flip between Nathan and the Angels Francisco Rodriguez, but we’ll give the very slightest edge to the 32-year-old Nathan because of the breakdown factor associated with K-Rod. Nathan has been an elite closer since coming to the Twins from San Francisco, and while it’s next to impossible to predict wins from a reliever, Nathan’s won 14 games the past two years to go along with his 79 saves and 189 strikeouts.
Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
47 saves, 4 BS, 2 wins, 1.73 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 98 K, 28 BB, 73.0 IP
Of course, nobody would blame you for taking K-Rod as the #1 closer. Rodriguez has seven years on Joe Nathan and he’s been just as dominant as the Twins stopper, converting 92 of his 101 saves the last two years with 189 strikeouts and filthy ratios. Assuming his violent motion doesn’t lead to injury, K-Rod will remain one of the absolute best closers in the game.
B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
38 saves, 4 BS, 2 wins, 1.37 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 86 K, 20 BB, 72.1 IP
A lot of people balked when the Blue Jays gave B.J. Ryan a five-year, $47-million deal after spending just one year as the Orioles’ full-time closer, but the 31-year-old lefty made the Jays look good in his first season north of the border. He converted 38 of his 42 chances and while his strikeouts slipped a bit, his ERA improved by a full run and his WHIP fell under 1.00. Consider Ryan an excellent buy and expect similar success on an improving Toronto team.
Billy Wagner, Mets
40 saves, 5 BS, 3 wins, 2.24 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 95 K, 21 BB, 72.1 IP
Now 35, Wagner just keeps on going. In his first year with the Mets, the hard-throwing left hander topped 40 saves for the first time since 2003 and, as always, he was an excellent source of strikeouts. Some may be tempted to drop Wagner in their rankings because of his age, but look at the above numbers and tell us if you see any signs of wearing down.
THE STARS
Mariano Rivera, Yankees
34 saves, 3 BS, 5 wins, 1.80 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 55 K, 11 BB, 75.0 IP
Unlike Billy Wagner, Mo Rivera has seen his production falter a bit over the past two years. Coming off a fantastic 2004 season with 53 saves, a 1.94 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, Rivera’s saves have fallen to 43 in ’05 and 34 last season, his lowest total since 2002. Considering the 37-year-old right hander missed some time last year with a back injury and that he doesn’t offer the robust strikeout totals of some of the other elite options, he’s not quite as attractive as he was a couple of years ago.
Trevor Hoffman, Padres
46 saves, 5 BS, 0 wins, 2.14 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 50 K, 13 BB, 63.0 IP
At 39, Hoffman and Philly’s Tom Gordon are the oldest closers on this list, but the lifelong Padre is still unquestionably one of the best in the business. Like Rivera, Hoffman won’t give you the strikeouts that the four top-ranked closers will, but he’s also a near lock to register 40 saves with excellent ratios. Aside from his lost 2003 season, Hoffman, the game’s all-time saves leader, has been durable throughout his 13-year career, and nothing in the above line suggests that’s going to change this season.
Chris Ray, Orioles
33 saves, 5 BS, 4 wins, 2.73 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 51 K, 27 BB, 66.0 IP
In his first season as a ML closer, the 25-year-old Ray didn’t disappoint, building off the success he enjoyed as a set-up man to BJ Ryan the year before. Baltimore’s meager offense cost Ray in the second half, limiting the young right hander to just 15 save chances, but the Orioles took steps to improve their lineup this winter. Expect 35-plus saves from Ray, who held opposing batters to a .193 average last season.
Huston Street, A’s
37 saves, 11 BS, 4 wins, 3.31 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 67 K, 13 BB, 70.2 IP
Coming off his second season as Oakland’s full-time closer, the 23-year-old Street has to improve his consistency after blowing 11 of his 48 save chances and sporting a 3.31 ERA. Durability remains a concern for the young right hander but with 60 saves during his brief ML career, Street has plenty of upside and room for growth.
J.J. Putz, Mariners
36 saves, 7 BS, 4 wins, 2.30 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 104 K, 13 BB, 78.1 IP
Putz could be several spots higher on this list next season if he backs up last year’s breakout campaign with a similar effort in 2007. Of course, since Putz had never been even remotely as effective in his previous three years as he was in his first run as a full-time closer, some skepticism is well warranted. Despite the tantalizing strikeout numbers, it’s probably best to wait on the 30-year-old Putz until some of the other more proven stoppers are off the board.
Chad Cordero, Nationals
29 saves, 4 BS, 7 wins, 3.19 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 69 K, 22 BB, 73.1 IP
Cordero wasn’t able to replicate his magical 2005 season, losing 18 saves from his total with higher ratios and a few more walks. Closing games for perhaps baseball’s worst team certainly doesn’t boost his value, but good closers on bad teams still get their saves. Of course, expecting Cordero to ratchet it back up to 47 saves would be foolish, but there’s no reason he can’t find 30-plus in an otherwise hopeless season for the Nats.
THE FALLBACKS
Francisco Cordero, Brewers
22 saves, 11 BS, 10 wins, 3.70 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 84 K, 32 BB, 75.1 IP
A lost season quickly became a rescued one when Cordero was dealt to the Brewers as part of the Carlos Lee trade last summer. After blowing nine of his 15 chances with the Rangers and losing his job to Akinori Otsuka, the 31-year-old Cordero converted 16 of his 18 chances with Milwaukee with a nice 1.69 ERA. He’s always been one of the more volatile closers in the game, with a WHIP of 1.31 over the last three years, but from 2004-05 he saved 86 games with an ERA under 3.00. Expect some more shaky outings in 2007 but 35 saves could be within reach.
Brian Fuentes, Rockies
30 saves, 6 BS, 3 wins, 3.44 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 73 K, 26 BB, 65.1 IP
Fuentes remains one of the most underrated closers in fantasy baseball. Part of that, of course, is because he pitches for the Rockies, where save chances are limited and gopher balls are the norm. Despite that, the 31-year-old Fuentes has been very effective in his two years as the Rockies’ full-time closer, converting 61 of his 70 chances with solid ratios. He took a slight step back last season after striking out 91 batters with a 2.91 ERA in 2005, but he’s still an excellent value pick with great strikeout potential.
Bobby Jenks, White Sox
41 saves, 4 BS, 3 wins, 4.01 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 80 K, 31 BB, 69.2 IP
After already complaining about shoulder tightness this spring, Jenks is beginning to look like somebody best avoided on draft day. In his first full season as the Sox closer, the rotund 26 year old converted 41 of his 45 chances but his ERA and WHIP were brutal and, while the strikeouts were nice, there’s a little too much volatility here for our tastes. A checkered injury history coupled with his weight problem makes Jenks a risky proposition.
Bob Wickman, Braves
33 saves, 4 BS, 1 wins, 2.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 42 K, 13 BB, 54.0 IP
“Keg with an arm” is how one of our associates describes the 38-year-old Wickman. Now entering his 15th season, Wick keeps defying logic by racking up big saves with solid ratios, and assuming he stays healthy again this year, more of the same should be on the way in his first full season with the Braves. He’s got some good young relievers ready to go behind him, but as long as his arm doesn’t fall off, the keg will be good for another 35 saves in 2007.
Tom Gordon, Phillies
34 saves, 5 BS, 3 wins, 3.34 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 68 K, 22 BB, 59.1 IP
Understand if you draft Gordon that you’ll likely be without his services for one or two DL stints. When he’s healthy, though, the 39-year-old veteran will be good for plenty of saves and strikeouts, and you can expect the ERA and WHIP to be slightly better this year as well. But keep in mind that the Phillies will want to keep Gordon as fresh as possible so, unlike some younger closers, his work in back-to-back games could be limited and we wouldn’t expect to see him in many tie games or otherwise non-save situations. The good news is, that should all serve to keep Gordon on the field, but you’ll also miss out on some vulture wins and a few extra K’s.
THE GAMBLES
Brad Lidge, Astros
32 saves, 6 BS, 1 wins, 5.28 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 104 K, 36 BB, 75.0 IP
Lidge will be a boom or bust pick this year. The 30-year-old right hander was one of baseball’s most thoroughly dominant relievers from 2003-05, saving 72 games while striking out 12.85 batters per nine innings with a 2.59 ERA. Coming off a career high 10 homers allowed and his worst walk rate since 2003, the Astros nonetheless say Lidge is their closer. He’ll be on a much shorter leash this year, though, with Dan Wheeler ready to step in should he continue to struggle. His heavy workload may be a factor but we say Lidge enjoys a moderate bounceback, making him one of the best potential value picks among all closers.
Jose Valverde, Diamondbacks
18 saves, 4 BS, 2 wins, 5.84 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 69 K, 22 BB, 49.1 IP
If the 27-year-old Valverde ever puts it all together, he could be a sensational closer for the Diamondbacks and his fantasy owners. We’re counting on that happening this year. Valverde was sensational in 2005, striking out 75 batters in 66.1 innings with a 2.44 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. A brutal first half (8.22 ERA) last year had him on a bus back to Triple-A, but he rebounded nicely after a second-half recall to convert four of five save opportunities with a tidy 1.93 ERA. The closer’s job is his to lose, and while continued bouts of inconsistency should be expected, Valverde could be one of the year’s bigger surprises.
Eric Gagne, Rangers
1 save, 0 BS, 0 wins, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 3 K, 1 BB, 2.0 IP
Whether or not we can recommend Gagne this year depends entirely on where you’d be able to draft him. Some foolish owner (maybe a Dodgers fan) could reach for the goggled closer way too early, which is just a bad idea. Gagne endured three arms surgeries in the span of 13 months, and he’s now three years removed from his days as a dominant closer in LA. We’re betting the 31-year-old right hander spends some time on the shelf with one injury or another, but if you can draft him as an end-game closer, his strikeout potential alone makes him worth the risk.
Octavio Dotel, Royals
0 saves, 0 BS, 0 wins, 10.80 ERA, 2.90 WHIP, 7 K, 11 BB, 10.0 IP
Three years have passed since Octavio Dotel’s run as the closer for Houston and Oakland. He was always a great source of strikeouts but after undergoing Tommy John surgery during the 2005 season, plenty of uncertainty surrounds the 33-year-old right hander’s upcoming season. It took him longer than expected to rehab with the Yankees last year, but that didn’t stop the Royals from throwing $5 million at Dotel to be their closer. Track him closely during the spring because if he’s fully recovered, he could deliver 25 saves and a bunch of K’s.
Todd Jones, Tigers
37 saves, 6 BS, 2 wins, 3.94 ERA,1.27 WHIP, 28 K,11 BB, 64 IP
To his credit, very few people projected a 37-save season for Jones. Then again, more of the credit (or blame) should be given to Jim Leyland for sticking with Jones all season despite having at least two guys more qualified to shut the door in the ninth inning. But set-up men Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney are more valuable to the Tigers in the seventh and eighth innings, so assuming Jones holds up for another year, he should get the bulk of his team’s saves. Jones is 38, though, which means that kind of assumption may qualify as a leap of faith.
Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
33 saves, 10 BS, 4 wins, 3.55 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 52 K, 38 BB, 58.1 IP
Injuries are nothing new to the 34-year-old Isringhausen. An arthritic hip ended Izzy’s season last September and paved the way for rookie Adam Wainwright to save the final game of the World Series. The Cards say Isringhausen is healthy (for now, anyway) and will step back in as the team’s closer, sending Wainwright to the rotation. Don’t count on Izzy to anchor your bullpen but in a best-case scenario, he may be able to avoid a breakdown and save 35 games with decent ratios. Worst case is Wainwright (or someone else) leads the Cards in saves.
Takashi Saito, Dodgers
24 saves, 2 BS, 6 wins, 2.07 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 107 K, 23 BB, 78.1 IP
Saito could be the first closer to lose his job this year. The 37-year-old Japanese veteran was sensational in his first season with the Dodgers, striking out 12.3 batters per nine innings while converting 24 of his 26 save opportunities. But as we’ve seen before, many Japanese pitchers enjoy success early in their ML careers but then peter out after that. Remember Shingo Takatsu? Compare Akinori Ostuka’s first year with the Padres to his second. And considering Saito was never as good in Japan as he was for the Dodgers, you’ve got the makings of a bona fide bust. He’ll have the job early on so Saito should be drafted as a closer, but we’d rather have closer-in-waiting Jonathan Broxton.
Joe Borowski, Indians
36 wins, 7 BS, 3 wins, 3.75 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 64 K, 33 BB, 69.2 IP
Following the sudden retirement of Keith Foulke, newcomer Joe Borowski has the closer’s job all to himself in Cleveland. Some may be quick to write off the 35-year-old veteran, but JoBo has enjoyed some success as a closer, converting 33 of 37 opportunities with a 2.63 ERA for the Cubs in 2003 and saving 36 games in 43 chances for the Fish last year. He’s not going to give you the sparkling ratios that the elite closers will provide, but Borowski had a solid K-rate in Florida and, as an end-game closer, he should provide solid value in 2007.
THE SET-UP STUDS
Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
3 saves, 4 BS, 4 wins, 2.59 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 97 K, 33 BB, 76.1 IP
As we said earlier, we’d rather take the 22-year-old Broxton over supposed Dodgers closer Takashi Saito. While everyone else gushes over the season Joel Zumaya had for the Tigers, Broxton was almost as electric, striking out 11.47 batters per nine innings while delivering good ratios and even a few saves. Saito will have to lose the job for Broxton to take over but should that happen (and we like the odds), Broxton’s overpowering fastball and nasty slider should make him a very good closer for years to come.
Joel Zumaya, Tigers
1 save, 5 BS, 6 wins, 1.94 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 97 K, 42 BB, 83.1 IP
Zumaya looks like the future closer in Detroit but all signs point to Jim Leyland sticking with Todd Jones until he keels over on the mound. Even in a set-up role, Zumaya brings plenty to the table, and at just 22 years old, there’s no reason to expect any significant regression from the overpowering youngster. If he somehow finds himself closing out games for the Tigers this year, look out.
Scot Shields, Angels
2 saves, 6 BS, 7 wins, 2.88 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 84 K, 24 BB, 87.2 IP
Shields has been one of the game’s most valuable middle relievers for several years now, and should anything ever happen to all-world closer Francisco Rodriguez, most assume Shields would have no problem stepping into the ninth-inning role. Good for a strikeout per inning, a handful of wins and good ratios, Shields can really help solidify your staff even if he’s not giving you saves. And because he usually logs about 90 innings a year, his contributions are more valuable than your typical middle reliever’s.
THE BOTTOM FEEDERS
David Weathers, Reds
12 saves, 7 BS, 4 wins, 3.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 50 K, 34 BB, 73.2 IP
Weathers is said to be sharing the Reds’ closer’s role with lefty Mike Stanton, but we’d say Weathers is the safer pick. The 37-year-old vet was decent in a limited role last year, though his conversion rate makes him one of the lower-end closer candidates out there. There are some good young arms in the Cinci bullpen so just duplicating his 2006 numbers may not be enough for Weathers to hold the job all year, but he should be good for double-digit saves.
Salomon Torres, Pirates
12 saves, 3 BS, 3 wins, 3.28 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 72 K, 38 BB, 93.1 IP
What to do with Salomon Torres? Following Mike Gonzalez’s trade to Atlanta, the 35-year-old Torres will be Pittsburgh’s full-time closer, at least to open the season. He converted 12 of his 13 chances a year ago when Gonzalez went down with an injury, but he doesn’t have much of a track record in his new role and, considering opposing batters hit .274 off him last year, we’re not overly optimistic that Torres will hold on to the job for an extended period of time.
Armando Benitez, Giants
17 saves, 8 BS, 4 wins, 3.52 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 31 K, 21 BB, 38.1 IP
Now 34 and coming off two injury-shortened seasons, Benitez doesn’t look like a very good bet this year. Knee problems hampered the veteran closer last season and they’ve delayed his progress this spring, which is obviously a bad sign. There are rumors of the Giants trying to deal Benitez to Florida to make room for Brian Wilson, but unless he can prove he’s healthy, we’re not sure why the Marlins would be interested.
Ryan Dempster, Cubs
24 saves, 9 BS, 1 win, 4.80 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 67 K, 36 BB, 75.0 IP
After enjoying moderate success in the role two years ago (33 saves, 3.13 ERA), Dempster flamed out in his second season as the Cubs closer, blowing nine saves with an ERA close to 5.00. He’s entirely too hittable to be effective for an entire season, and his high walk rate only makes matters worse. Bob Howry and maybe even Kerry Wood should get a shot at the job at some point, though right now the Cubs are saying Dempster will open the season as the closer. If you decide to roll the dice, hope for 15 saves before he coughs up the job.
THE REST
Bob Howry, Cubs
5 saves, 4 BS, 4 wins, 3.17 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 71 K, 17 BB, 76.2 IP
It seemed only fitting to list Howry directly after Dempster. A lot of people say Kerry Wood has the stuff to close should Dempster earn a demotion, and while they’re probably right, Howry’s not only got the stuff to close but he’s also got the experience, saving 57 games throughout his eight-year career with a high of 28 in 1999. Following some injury problems in 2003, Howry’s been an effective set-up man for the past three years and, if (when) Dempster loses his job, Howry may get first crack at replacing him. Then again, because the 33-year-old right hander is so valuable in the eighth inning, Lou Piniella may want to keep him there and give a guy like Wood a chance.
Scott Linebrink, Padres
2 saves, 9 BS, 7 wins, 3.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 68 K, 22 BB, 75.2 IP
Linebrink has the stuff to close but the Padres have some guy named Trevor Hoffman handling the ninth inning, which means Linebrink has to settle for being one of the most highly regarded set-up men in the game. There have been rumors of Linebrink going to Philly for Aaron Rowand, but even though the 30-year-old right hander is coming off a down year (by his standards), we’d think he could fetch more in a trade. Wherever he ends up, Linebrink is one of the better middle relievers to round your staff out with, offering around a strikeout per inning with very good ratios and a handful of wins.
Akinori Otsuka, Rangers
32 saves, 4 BS, 2 wins, 2.11 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 47 K, 11 BB, 59.2 IP
Otsuka was one of the top free-agent additions last season after Francisco Cordero was removed from the closer’s role in May. Despite his success, Otsuka wasn’t quite as effective last year as he was in his first season with the Padres, but owners who nabbed him off the waiver wire and watched him convert 32 of his 36 chances weren’t complaining. He’ll move back into a set-up role with Eric Gagne now in town but there’s a good chance he’ll record at least a handful of saves in relief of the brittle closer. Even so, as was the case with his second year in San Diego, we’re not expecting the 35-year-old Otsuka to be as successful in his second go-round in the AL.
Rafael Soriano, Braves
2 saves, 4 BS, 1 wins, 2.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 65 K, 21 BB, 60.0 IP
Projected as a future closer but unable to stay healthy for a full season, Soriano bolsters the back end of the Braves bullpen while also providing insurance for aging closer Bob Wickman. Should Wick need some time off, expect Soriano, not lefty Mike Gonzalez, to handle the ninth-inning duties, with an eye toward the electric 27-year-old Soriano taking over the role full time next year.
Mike Timlin, Red Sox
9 saves, 8 BS, 6 wins, 4.36 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 30 K, 16 BB, 64.0 IP
Someone in Boston needs to close, right? Timlin, Julian Tavarez, newcomer Joel Piniero and youngster Craig Hansen are all candidates, but there doesn’t seem to be a favorite just yet. Should the Red Sox get real desperate, we may even see Johnathan Papelbon back in the bullpen, though that seems unlikely. We’re betting Timlin gets a long look since he’s been an effective reliever for many years, but this situation may be best left untouched on draft day.