Bracket Breakdown
03/12/2007
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The brackets have been announced, which means it’s time to second-guess the selection committee. Below are my initial thoughts about each region, including general analysis of the seeds, upset possibilities, intriguing potential matchups and possible dark horses. I’ll also discuss a few teams that were snubbed and one team that really should be headed for the NIT.
Seedings
Florida is the #1 seed in the region and the #1 seed overall. At first glance, they appear to have the weakest #2 and #3 seeds in Wisconsin and Oregon, so they are a good bet to go to the Final Four. However, to get through to the Regional Final, they may have to face a dangerous #4 seed in Maryland. On paper, Arizona is stronger than a #8 seed - they are 17th in Joe Sagarin’s ratings – but they haven’t played very well lately, which is why they’re in the 8/9 game.
The 5/12 matchup in the Midwest is intriguing since the #5-seed Butler is usually in the underdog role. They have to face Old Dominion who has won nine of their last 10 games.
Upset Possibilities
All the pundits are talking about Winthrop as a very live dog, but they are 0-4 against teams in the Sagarin Top 25, and Notre Dame is a good team. Look for #2-seed Wisconsin to have trouble in the second round against either UNLV or Georgia Tech. Even before they lost Brian Butch to an elbow injury, the Badgers had a tough time scoring, and that’s a bigger problem now that he’s out.
Intriguing Potential Matchups
If both teams survive, Florida/Maryland should be a very good game. Prior to the ACC Tournament, Maryland was one of the hottest teams in the country, and they have the athleticism to match up with Florida. But the Terps might have a problem getting to the Sweet Sixteen if they have an off night.
Dark Horse
Georgia Tech is a #10 seed, which means the committee has them ranked around #40 in the tourney. But their Sagarin Ranking is #13, which means they should beat UNLV and could give the Badgers all they can handle in the second round. If they can get past Wisconsin, a trip to the Elite Eight is not out of the question.
Seedings
Kansas deserves the #1 seed, but will face a tough test in the second round with either Kentucky or Villanova. We don’t usually see a power conference team in the #12 seed, which means that Illinois was one of the very last teams to get in. Their matchup with #5 Virginia Tech is a tight one, but the Hokies have the advantage.
Upset Possibilities
The Indiana/Gonzaga matchup in the 7/10 game is a good one, and along with the 8/9 Kentucky/Villanova game, the lower seed has a great chance at pulling the upset. Duke is seeded #6, which puts them in the unenviable position of playing #3 Pittsburgh in the second round. But the Blue Devils are battle tested and are used to advancing to the Sweet Sixteen.
Intriguing Potential Matchups
If Pittsburgh and Duke both survive the first round, that should be one of the better second round matchups. Later on, if Pitt and UCLA square off in the Sweet Sixteen, it will pit Ben Howland against his former school. If Illinois is able to get past Virginia Tech, it would be great to see them play Southern Illinois for the state’s bragging rights.
Dark Horse
#4-seed Southern Illinois has 14 road/neutral court wins and should give Virginia Tech all they can handle if they meet in the second round. They even have the juice to get past Kansas if the Jayhawks have an off night.
Seedings
#1-seed North Carolina shouldn’t have much of a problem getting to the Sweet Sixteen, but at that point, they’ll face the bracket’s toughest #4 seed, Texas. Things are set up nicely for #2-seed Georgetown, whose style matches up nicely against potential second- (BC/Texas Tech) and third-round (Washington State/Vanderbilt) opponents.
Upset Possibilities
#12-seed Arkansas actually has a higher Sagarin rating than #5-seed USC, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Razorbacks advanced. But Arkansas has to make the long trip to Washington, which will be no fun after playing four games last week. The only consolation is that they play on Friday, so they do have an extra day to recover. WSU’s style doesn’t lend itself to blowing teams out, so Oral Roberts looks to have the best shot of all the #14 seeds.
Intriguing Potential Matchups
A WSU/Vanderbilt game could be a nail biter. The Commodores beat Florida and generally play to the level of their competition. However, Vandy plays a pretty good George Washington team in the first round, which makes for a tight 6/11 matchup. It would be great to see Texas and North Carolina square off in the Sweet Sixteen.
Dark Horse
Texas gave Kansas all they could handle in the Big 12 Final, and if freshman phenom Kevin Durant can stay hot, the Longhorns have a shot against North Carolina. Roy Williams can’t be happy about seeing Texas on their side of the bracket.
Seedings
If not for a potential matchup with #6-seed Louisville in Lexington, Texas A&M would have a real shot at advancing to the Final Four. #1-seed Ohio State has had trouble scoring at times, but as long as they keep Greg Oden involved, they shouldn’t have a problem advancing to the Elite Eight. In order to beat the Buckeyes, a team has to have enough shooters to keep OSU out of a zone and a big man that can pull Oden away from the basket, and there doesn't look to be a team that fits that description on the Bucks' side of the bracket.
Upset Possibilities
At first glance, #9-seed Xavier has the advantage over #8-seed BYU, while #10 Creighton is a live dog against #7 Nevada. Upstart #13-seed Albany is a long shot against Virginia, but they are playing well and could present some problems for the Cavaliers.
Intriguing Potential Matchups
If it happens, that Texas A&M/Louisville game in Kentucky would test the Aggies’ mettle. The other second-round game in Lexington could be an Ohio State/Xavier matchup, which would be a fun one if each team brings its fan base.
Dark Horse
If Texas A&M can get past Louisville, they’ve got a legit shot of making the Final Four. Don’t be surprised if the winner of the Nevada/Creighton game upsets Memphis, who hasn’t played a very tough schedule and is only 1-3 versus top competition.
Drexel
The Dragons won 14 road games including wins at Villanova, Creighton and Syracuse, but a fourth-place finish in the Colonial and several at-large bids being eaten up during Championship Week made it tough to include Drexel.
Syracuse
The ‘Cuse did have 10 wins in the Big East, but a loss at home to Drexel means that if the Dragons didn’t get in, the Orangemen weren’t getting in either. Syracuse didn’t bother to play a road non-conference game, which is a big no-no with the committee.
Florida State
The Seminoles beat Florida in non-conference play and won at Duke, but it didn’t help that they were 4-6 in their last 10 games and had a 6-9 road/neutral court record.
Illinois
The committee’s decision to include the Illini is a little mystifying. They were just 1-6 versus Sagarin Top 25 competition and, though they played in the rugged Big Ten, they only played Wisconsin and Ohio State once each, and both games were at home. In the end, it looks like two wins in the Big Ten Tournament were enough to put the Illini over the top.