Well, three out of four ain’t bad...
04/01/2008
Paulsen Home / Sports Channel / Bullz-Eye Home
After watching a fairly demoralizing Memphis/Texas game, where one of my Final Four picks laid a giant egg in front of a partisan crowd, I was on the edge of my seat as Kansas, the lynchpin to my bracket, almost squandered a six-point lead with less than a minute to play. On an out of bounds play, Brandon Rush made a serious error in going underneath a Davidson screen, allowing Stephen Curry an open look at a three. Rush should know to chase Curry on that screen instead of letting such a good shooter get his feet set. It almost cost his team the game.
Curry played well for most of the game but seemed to wear down in the middle of the second half. That was when Bryant Barr (a.k.a. “The White Lobster”) hit three straight threes to keep the Wildcats in the game and threaten thousands of brackets in the process. Luckily for Kansas, Davidson’s point guard, Jason Richards, played pretty poorly down the stretch. Had he posted his usual game, Davidson might be heading to the Final Four right now. On a side note, it was nice to see Sasha Kaun get the Player of the Game for Kansas. He went six for six from the field (for 13 points) and grabbed seven boards. So what if he looks like Haywire from “Prison Break”? (If you don’t believe me, take a minute and compare his pic with one of everyone’s favorite schizophrenic.)
But let’s get back to that Memphis/Texas matchup, and to the play of Derrick Rose. I picked the Longhorns because I expected D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams to outplay the Tigers’ guards. The Texas duo got their points (33) but combined to shoot a woeful 10 of 34 (29%) from the field. I seriously underestimated the motivation that Rose would play with given the marquee matchup with Augustin. His line -- 21 points, nine assists, six boards -- speaks for itself, but I think he established himself as the top point guard in the NBA Draft, assuming he leaves school.
I haven’t been much of a believer in Memphis all season, but they look strong and focused. Given how shaky UCLA was playing prior to the game against Xavier, I have to think that Memphis has the advantage in momentum. It will be interesting to see how Kevin Love matches up with the athletic (and long) Memphis front line. The Bruins have the ability to lockdown most offenses, but if they have trouble scoring, Memphis will get some easy baskets in transition. At this point, I’d take Memphis for that reason.
However, I have UCLA advancing to the Championship Game in my bracket, so I’ll stick with that pick. Since I live in Southern California, just about everyone in my local pool has UCLA in the Finals, so a Bruins’ loss won’t hurt me much. The key is that Kansas has to beat North Carolina and go on to win the title. Given their suspect play against Davidson, I’m not bursting with confidence.
If you followed my picks, you now have three of the Final Four teams, which isn’t bad, but considering all four #1 seeds made it (for the first time in history), it isn’t that impressive, either. However, you’re probably in position to make some money if Kansas can break through and win the title. What really hurt was the Louisville/Tennessee game. I had Tennessee (and I’m not sure why since I thought they were destined to lose before the Final Four) while Louisville was a popular Elite Eight pick. I don’t feel too bad though because I took Louisville before the Sweet Sixteen, so hopefully a few of you benefited in those “second chance” pools.
To update those Sagarin rating statistics, a team with a two-point (or more) advantage has gone an impressive 39-8 (83%) in this year’s tournament. Both Final Four games are too close to call using only that statistic. Kansas and UCLA have the advantage in Points Per Shot, but that stat hasn’t been too great in this tourney (3-3), so we’re flying a little blind here. For most of the season, I thought Kansas executed better than North Carolina down the stretch, but that Davidson game has me wondering.
Speaking of the Tar Heels, I’m starting to warm up to Tyler Hansbrough as a legitimate NBA player. He showed some serious athleticism on that follow-up dunk against Louisville and he has the straight-line speed to match up with most NBA power forwards. But what sets him apart is his work ethic. Jay Bilas has repeatedly said that he’s never seen Hansbrough take a play off and, if he keeps that up, he’ll have a nightly advantage in the NBA. Plus, that work ethic will come in especially handy during the summer; he’ll be in the gym honing his game while other players are off starting their own record labels or producing independent films. I see him evolving into a solid NBA starter and a 13/8-type guy.
Saturday is a huge day with all four #1 seeds in action. I’m really torn about where to watch the games. While it’s nice to sit on the couch and enjoy the doubleheader at home, I’m not sure I can handle four-plus hours of Billy Packer. I may just watch the games at a sports bar with my friends to avoid listening to him second-guess each bad play and pat himself on the back every time he’s right about something. He’s fine from a pure nuts-and-bolts standpoint, but he has no clue how to entertain an audience. The three other color-commentary guys that worked this weekend -- Len Elmore, Jay Bilas and Bill Raftery -- are just as good from a strategy standpoint and are far more enjoyable to listen to. It’s almost as if, at some point early in his career, Packer decided to make a deal with the devil to become the voice of March Madness, but in return he had to trade in his sense of humor and any semblance of self-deprecation and humility. Jim Nantz on his own is fine, but with Packer around, he doesn’t seem to have any self-confidence. In a broadcasting sense, the two seem to have an emotionally abusive relationship. I’d love to see how Gus Johnson and Bill Raftery would do together, though a Johnson/Elmore combo would be an upgrade as well. I agree with ESPN’s Bill Simmons that Gus Johnson is the cream of the crop in the play-by-play world, and it’s good to see that the guy is starting to get his due.
Since four #1 seeds advanced, this Final Four is jam-packed with great teams and big stars. Roy Williams faces his old team, while UCLA and Memphis meet in a clash of opposing styles. The potential is there for a thrilling Saturday, but let’s just hope the games are competitive. Aside from a few loyal fans, no one wants to see a pair of blowouts.
Have you ever heard Jim Nantz and Billy Packer try to fill dead air? It isn’t pretty.
Send questions and comments to jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com.