Is it time to bench (or trade) these disappointing players?
09/21/2007
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With guys like Derrick Ward, Marion Barber, Derek Anderson, David Garrard, Wes Welker, Shaun McDonald and Ronald Curry eating up spots in the top 20 at their respective positions, there are bound to be a few higher-profile players who are not meeting preseason expectations.
Below is a list of the 25 most disappointing players through the first two weeks of the season, ranked by the difference in their positional draft position and their current fantasy rank (in Antsports’ High Performance Scoring System). I’ll discuss why each player is underperforming and what owners should expect going forward.
1. Lee Evans (drafted WR14, currently WR87, -73)
Last season, Evans was targeted 8.6 times per game and converted almost 60% of those into receptions. Thus far in 2007, he has been targeted 6.0 times per game and has converted just 33% of those into catches. Is it time to panic? Maybe. It’s true that J.P. Losman isn’t playing well, and that could continue, but Buffalo’s schedule lightens up considerably with three great matchups in the next seven weeks. Evans is known for being a dangerous deep threat, so his numbers are always going to be more erratic than most. Unless you have better options, keep starting him, but if he doesn’t produce by Week 7, it’s probably time to look elsewhere.
2. Larry Fitzgerald (drafted WR7, currently WR43, -36)
Fitz is right on pace with his 2006 target and conversion numbers; he simply hasn’t scored. One TD would have made him WR28 and two would have made him WR23. That, combined with all the monster games posted by wideouts in week 2, and you have an apparent lack of performance. Fitz should be fine (and it might not be a bad time to target him in a trade), though be warned: Arizona is running the ball a lot more.
3. Steven Jackson (drafted RB2, currently RB30, -28)
The Orlando Pace injury is obviously huge, so fantasy owners should ratchet down the expectations going forward,as it doesn’t look like Jackson is a shoe-in for the top 5. The top 10 is within reach, and a good performance this week against a suspect Bucs DT should put his owners’ minds at ease. If he struggles again, it might be time to bench him if there are better options available on your roster.
4. Laurence Maroney (drafted RB10, currently RB37, -27)
Maroney’s lack of fantasy production can be summed up in two words: Sammy Morris. Thus far, it’s a 63/37 split in the running game, and Maroney has yet to catch a pass. (Morris has two catches.) Moreover, Maroney is getting less than half of the team’s redzone carries and has yet to score. This split is likely to continue for the rest of the season, so owners should hold on until he has a good game and then try to move him. One caveat: Morris doesn’t bring big plays to the table, so if Maroney can break a long run or two, it might earn him more touches going forward.
5. Vernon Davis (drafted TE5, currently TE32, -27)
The 49ers are 2-0, but their passing game has been awful. Alex Smith doesn’t look comfortable and Davis has only been targeted seven times in the first two weeks. Over his nice four-game run to close the ’06 season, Davis was targeted 6.5 times per game, so it’s clear that the ‘07 49ers just don’t have him involved like they should. Given their aerial struggles, there’s no excuse not to target him more. Stick with him for now.
6. Darrell Jackson (drafted WR26, currently WR51, -25)
D-Jax didn’t play much in the second half of week 2 and thus far has been targeted the same number of times (13) as Arnaz Battle. He was targeted 8.6 times per game in ’06, so he’s not getting the kind of work he’s used to. Bench him until the 49ers passing game improves. (They have a tough matchup against the Steelers in week 3, but things get easier after that.)
7. Maurice Jones-Drew (drafted RB15, currently RB40, -25)
How does an offensive line forget how to block? Just ask the Jaguars – the left side of the line has been a mess in the running game. Moreover, last season, Fred Taylor and MJD split 466 touches almost right down the middle. Thus far, the two backs are only on pace for 360 total touches. Last season, they both averaged at least 5.0 ypc. This season, they have combined for 3.4. The schedule doesn’t get any easier, so there is good reason to be worried. Bench him if you can afford to, but be prepared – you may miss out on some big games.
8. Deion Branch (drafted WR22, currently WR45, -23)
Branch didn’t catch a pass in week 1 (on just three targets) and Mike Holmgren scolded himself for it. In week 2, Branch turned 13 targets into seven catches for 122 yards. Move along, nothing to see here.
9. L.J. Smith (drafted TE11, currently TE33, -22)
Smith has been hampered by a groin strain and hasn’t been his usual self. Throw in Donovan McNabb’s inconsistent play and you have the makings of a letdown. Move Smith to your bench; the Eagles should get this straightened out soon.
10. Santana Moss (drafted WR23, currently WR44, -21)
After a quiet week 1, Moss had a nice game against the Eagles, catching six balls for 89 yards. Had he and Jason Campbell connected on that long bomb, he would be WR20 right now. No need to worry.
11. Drew Brees (drafted QB4, currently QB23, -19)
Playing from behind, Brees put up decent numbers in week 2, but does that mean he’s on his way back? Maybe he’s bothered by that dislocated (non-throwing) elbow he suffered in the Pro Bowl or maybe defenses have figured out Sean Payton’s tendencies. Whatever the reason, he just doesn’t look like the ’06 Drew Brees. The Saints’ offense should bounce back, but if Brees doesn’t look better in his next two games (at home against the Titans and the Panthers), it might be time to bench him.
12. Reggie Bush (drafted RB8, currently RB27, -19)
Bush’s fortunes are tied to Brees’. Keep starting Bush in PPR leagues. In standard leagues, if you have other options at RB, play the best matchup. Reggie is still going to have some big games.
13. Anquan Boldin (drafted WR9, currently WR28, -19)
Boldin’s targets are down from 9.5 in 2006 to 7.5 thus far in 2007. The Cardinals have moved from a 57/43 pass/run split last year to a 50/50 split this season, and Boldin is one of the guys suffering. Since the team has been very competitive in both games this season, this philosophy doesn’t figure to change anytime soon, so owners should expect Boldin to be at best a WR2 going forward.
14. Marvin Harrison (drafted WR4, currently WR22, -18)
Through two games, Harrison has 10 catches for 170 yards and a score. As long as he stays healthy, he’ll finish in the top 10. No worries here.
15. Hines Ward (drafted WR17, currently WR34, -17)
Ward’s targets have dropped from 9.0 in 2006 to 7.5 this season. The Steelers threw 32.7 times per game in 2006, but two blowouts against Cleveland and Buffalo have resulted in just 28.5 pass attempts per game this season. Things should even out soon and Ward’s numbers should improve.
16. Donovan McNabb (drafted QB6, currently QB22, -16)
McNabb’s schedule lightens considerably, so keep starting him (or target him in a trade) and reap the rewards. Andy Reid will figure things out.
17. Cedric Benson (drafted RB18, currently RB34, -16)
Benson looked pretty good when he topped 100 yards against the Chiefs; he just hasn’t scored yet. Unless you have better options, he’s still a decent RB2.
18. Thomas Jones (drafted RB19, currently RB35, -16)
It’s no fun trying to run on New England or Baltimore. With the Dolphins, Bills and Giants coming up, TJ’s outlook is looking pretty good. He should be a nice RB2 over that span. Leon Washington hasn’t been much of a factor.
19. Larry Johnson (drafted RB3, currently RB18, -15)
LJ’s tough start may continue with games against Minnesota, San Diego and Jacksonville in the next three weeks. Things lighten up after that, but there are still a few tough games remaining on KC’s schedule. He has TEN and DET in weeks 15 & 16, so he’s a great target for a trade if he continues to put up modest numbers.
20. Philip Rivers (drafted QB11, currently QB25, -14)
Rivers has had the misfortune of facing two great defenses in Chicago and New England. Things aren’t going to get much easier with Green Bay and Denver in the next three weeks. If you have other reasonable options, it’s best to go QBBC based on the matchup.
21. Chris Cooley (drafted TE7, currently TE20, -13)
Cooley’s targets are up from 3.6 in 2006 to 4.0 thus far in 2007, but he just hasn’t converted those targets into catches like he has in the past. He should be fine.
22. Tony Gonzalez (drafted TE2, currently TE14, -12)
Gonzo’s targets are down from 6.9 last year to 6.0 this season. What’s worse, he’s only gaining 7.9 yards per catch, which is well off his career mark of 12.0. The KC passing game is in trouble, and a pretty brutal schedule squashes any optimism. Gonzo is still a starting TE, just don’t expect him to finish in the top 3 this season.
23. Marques Colston (drafted WR13, currently WR23, -10)
Only a touchdown separates WR23 from WR13, so given all the Saints’ troubles, things are looking pretty good for the second-year wideout. Keep him in your starting lineup.
24. Ronnie Brown (drafted RB14, currently RB25, -9)
Brown is currently splitting touches with Jesse Chatman at a 60/40 rate. Moreover, Chatman has been more productive in his carries (4.2 ypc) than Brown has (3.0 ypc). Miami’s schedule gets a little easier over the next two weeks, so if Brown has a nice game, it might be a nice time to move him.
25. Vince Young (drafted QB10, currently QB19, -9)
The lack of playmakers in the passing game is worrisome, but starting this week Young’s schedule gets considerably easier, so he should be a solid starter over the next six games.
Send questions and comments to jpaulsen@bullz-eye.com.